Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Nothing too impressive IMHO, except July 29 with 26/38°C and Aug 6 with 24/37°C. Many days had 35°C+ maxes but with lows of around 20°C.
You're joking right? Moscow average highs are normally 23/24C between 15th July and 18th August. During the 2010 heatwave the average high was 34C and the low 20C.
26.0C in july average is beyond insane for a location at 56N. i doubt there is a place that have had a higher monthly mean temp at that latitude. somewhere in siberia perhaps?
Moscow having an average high of 32C in July is like Leeds getting an average high of 28C or London 31C. I thought July 2006 here was ridiculous - but it's nothing compared to Moscow.
here's an illustration of the sheer insanity of this heatwave.
Climate Central has an interesting post about the extreme heat wave in Moscow this last July. They point out that if we assume the data are normally distributed, then the July 2010 average temperature anomaly value was more than 4 standard deviations above the July mean (and they have a lovely graph to emphasize it):
What’s the chance of such a deviation from the norm? For a normally distributed variable, they say, “This probability turns out to be on the order of a one and a half chance in 100,000 for the July anomaly."
Moreover, the July 2006 heatwave more or less corresponded to the calendar month. As nei pointed out, Moscow's monthly averages in summer 2010 don't tell the whole story as the heatwave straddled between July and August. Early July was mildly warm and late August was downright chilly. Kinda linke the 1976 western European heatwave, which straddled between June and July.
The warmest 31-day period was July 15 - August 14 and averaged 27.8°C/82.0°F, with a hi/lo of 34.5/20.8°C (94.1/69.4°F). This at 55°N+.
Thanks for the replies and all the information you bring along this thread @ all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kronan123
26.0C in july average is beyond insane for a location at 56N. i doubt there is a place that have had a higher monthly mean temp at that latitude. somewhere in siberia perhaps?
Kazan to the east had the same mean that July. I doubt that Siberian locations can trump Moscow's 26 °C mean as the temperature deviations are rather low there. I researched into data back to 2008 for Siberian cities and the warmest I can find are Yakutsk's mean of 22.5 °C in July 2011 and Omsk's mean of 22.8 °C in July 2012.
You're joking right? Moscow average highs are normally 23/24C between 15th July and 18th August. During the 2010 heatwave the average high was 34C and the low 20C.
That's an absolutely incredible heatwave.
Oh don't get me wrong - it is extremely impressive given Moscow's latitude and averages.
But in absolute terms, it's not the end of the world
here's an illustration of the sheer insanity of this heatwave.
Climate Central has an interesting post about the extreme heat wave in Moscow this last July. They point out that if we assume the data are normally distributed, then the July 2010 average temperature anomaly value was more than 4 standard deviations above the July mean (and they have a lovely graph to emphasize it):
What’s the chance of such a deviation from the norm? For a normally distributed variable, they say, “This probability turns out to be on the order of a one and a half chance in 100,000 for the July anomaly."
Interesting. I've always wondered to what extent climatic data is normally distributed.
Off topic but
Spoiler
For temperature, this kind of event shows that it is most likely not, albeit close. I'd say higher latitude and more continentality results in less resemblance to a normal distribution, whereas tropical and equatorial climates are most likely very close to normal.
For daily sunshine hours, clearly not, because of the upper bound of 100% sunshine values. Same goes for rainfall with the lower bound 0mm.
For monthly and yearly sunshine hours though, I'd assume they are very close to a normal distribution.
here's an illustration of the sheer insanity of this heatwave.
Climate Central has an interesting post about the extreme heat wave in Moscow this last July. They point out that if we assume the data are normally distributed, then the July 2010 average temperature anomaly value was more than 4 standard deviations above the July mean (and they have a lovely graph to emphasize it):
What’s the chance of such a deviation from the norm? For a normally distributed variable, they say, “This probability turns out to be on the order of a one and a half chance in 100,000 for the July anomaly."
The problem with that graph is it assuming a Gaussian (normally) distribution of temperatures, which is wrong for high deviations. Tamino did a more rigourous analysis:
I fit an extreme-value distribution to these data, and being conservative I find that the recent July heat wave is hardly a one-and-a-half-in-100000-years event, it’s really only a 1-in-260-years event. So in terms of its extreme deviation from “normal” July temperature, it’s not the extraordinary event some have suggested.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
