Which is more likely? Thunderstorm w/ inch of rain in an hour in Iquique, Chile or an inch of snow in Sydney? (climate, ice)

[AdriannaSmiling]

Which is more likely?

A) A freak thunderstorm drops an inch of rain in a hour in Iquique, Chile

Iquique - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

or

B) a freak cold front drops an inch of accumulating snow in Sydney, Australia

Sydney - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

or

C) Both are impossible

[deneb78]

I think the thunderstorm in Iquique is a bit more likely...if an el nino sets up and the right conditions are produced, it could in theory happen but extremely rare. Snow in Sydney is even less likely as there is nowhere the cold air could come from to produce temps cold enough to snow IMO

[The East Frisian]

I would say A is more likely, could imagine such an occurrence during a very strong El Niño year for example.

For B maybe in the next smaller ice age- i wouldn't completely rule out falling snow in Sydney, but a settling snowcover of one inch, seems to be more unlikely to me.

[Qilin34]

1" in Iquique, even if weather patterns in that part of South America are not the best-known globally. Even if flurries flew in downtown/coastal Sydney, given the current geography+climate, it would not snow hard enough to overcome above-freezing temperatures or reach below freezing in the first place.

[Caleb Yeung]

A is more likely.

[Derek41]

B) has occurred once in history:


1836: Snow in Sydney*|*SE Australian Recent Climate History


Unusual snow events in Australia - WikiSki

[RWood]

Iquique had 10mm in the whole of 2002, but I think (a) is virtually impossible at present.

[pdw]

I would definitely say an inch of snow in Sydney is more likely. Sydney does below freezing on occasion, and with temperatures likely hovering around zero, it wouldn't be too difficult for an inch to accumulate in the form of heavy snow.

[Ethereal]

By Sydney, do you count the inner suburbs or just the CBD?

I'd go with Sydney seeing snow, especially in the western suburbs.

Iquique is just morbidly dry.

[irlinit]

Really? Both are most likely improbable at best..