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Old 02-21-2014, 01:27 PM
nei nei started this thread nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Should be interesting to watch. from a guest post on Jeff Master's blog:

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : An El Niño Coming in 2014? | Weather Underground

Note that there has been strong cooling in the East Pacific, associated with the strong “Upwelling” phase of the Kelvin wave and strong sub-surface warming in the western-central Pacific associated with its “Downwelling” phase. This strong Oceanic Kelvin wave is the reason why today’s SST anomaly snap-shot map has the appearance of a strong La Niña, but is just the result of processes occurring in the Pacific Ocean at sub-seasonal time scales.

The current Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean has achieved the same strength as the one that preceded the 1997 Super El Niño event. This is an extremely rare feat but there still has to be a number of things to happen before we can say we are headed towards a strong El Niño. We need to see the continuation of strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific to keep the momentum forward.


some forecasts:

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Old 02-21-2014, 01:29 PM
 
Location: North West Northern Ireland.
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Yea I think it will be our tuen next year.
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Old 02-21-2014, 02:03 PM
 
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well, this is the big moment for the extreme AGW-scenarios. if the global temperature rises by 0.2C during this event, i will become a "beliver".
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Old 02-21-2014, 04:51 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Mac15 View Post
Yea I think it will be our tuen next year.
Not all El Ninos are alike. It depends at where the positive SST's are, and what magnitude the anomalies are. I've read that El Ninos usually bring colder and drier conditions to Northern Europe.


By the end of the summer we are likely to see the a weak El Nino




If this is the case, it is likely that we are going to have a cooler than normal summer over CONUS

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Old 02-21-2014, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Trondheim, Norway - 63 N
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El Nino is off course very important for the affected areas, bringing rain to the southwestern US and drought to Autralia and Indonesia.
No link between El Nino and the weather in Norway has been proven, according to Norwegian meteorologists.
El Niño - met.no
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Old 02-21-2014, 05:11 PM
 
Location: London, UK
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Originally Posted by kronan123 View Post
well, this is the big moment for the extreme AGW-scenarios. if the global temperature rises by 0.2C during this event, i will become a "beliver".
That's nonsense, wait for a couple decades (3 decades maybe?) to become a believer. I personally don't understand why scientists would keep up with this global warming if it wasn't happening.
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Old 02-21-2014, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Finland
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Originally Posted by Jakobsli View Post
El Nino is off course very important for the affected areas, bringing rain to the southwestern US and drought to Autralia and Indonesia.
No link between El Nino and the weather in Norway has been proven, according to Norwegian meteorologists.
El Niño - met.no
Last time I heard for Finland that "in winter a possible minimal vague effect, in summer no effect".

So probably not.
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Old 02-21-2014, 05:49 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
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Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Not all El Ninos are alike. It depends at where the positive SST's are, and what magnitude the anomalies are. I've read that El Ninos usually bring colder and drier conditions to Northern Europe.


By the end of the summer we are likely to see the a weak El Nino




If this is the case, it is likely that we are going to have a cooler than normal summer over CONUS
Nice! Relatively warm ocean temperatures and relatively cool air temperatures are the best possible combination in this region.
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Old 02-22-2014, 10:36 AM
 
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El Niño looking more and more likely

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Old 02-22-2014, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
El Niño looking more and more likely

I thought El Nino's have minimal impact on US East Coast summer temperatures, except reduced rainfall due to reduced tropical storms.
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