Climate talk: Europe (hot, warm, record, warming)

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by B87

If it stays like that for the rest of July, all of August and the first third of September, then summer 2016 will be redeemed slightly.

Forecast looks amazing, yet it's only close to normal. I bet it gets downgraded though; give it a while and Chicagogeorge will be here to post all of the coldest model runs he can find.

Hey now, my post on the previous page showed a warmer than normal 6-10 day and you poopooed it. Now it may actually happen

[tom77falcons]

The GFS is sensing a warm up for sure. The Euro model at the 12Z run hasn't caught it, so we need to check the next run at 0Z.

[chicagogeorge]

Today's anomalies




Still looking like a warming trend for Northwest Europe

[Warszawa]

Omg chicagogeorge, you are not making many British friends with all those maps lol

[B87]

Originally Posted by Warszawa

Omg chicagogeorge, you are not making many British friends with all those maps lol

Our forecast shows normal July conditions finally taking hold from Friday onwards. The 30c has gone missing though.

Only a matter of time before it backtracks to 21c and cloud I guess.

In fact, the models this morning are showing a return to the below average conditions we've had for the last 6 weeks.

[Botev1912]

I don't understand your weather. You have cool summers during El Nino and even cooler during La Nina? At least here I know what to expect. 2009 was another El Nino year and the summer was hot that broke the all-time record of 103F (39C) at the end of July. 2003 and 2006 also had hot summers. La Nina years are cooler.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Botev1912

I don't understand your weather. You have cool summers during El Nino and even cooler during La Nina? At least here I know what to expect. 2009 was another El Nino year and the summer was hot that broke the all-time record of 103F (39C) at the end of July. 2003 and 2006 also had hot summers. La Nina years are cooler.

I don't think El Nino and especially La Nina impacts them too much. They have to worry about the Atlantic. You have the Pacific.

[Botev1912]

I don't really understand these patterns that's why I am asking. But I have noticed we see our best years during El Nino and our worst during La Nina. It's true they are far from the Pacific though. What determines their weather? It seems like it's constantly getting cloudier and cooler no matter what happens.

[B87]

Originally Posted by Botev1912

I don't really understand these patterns that's why I am asking. But I have noticed we see our best years during El Nino and our worst during La Nina. It's true they are far from the Pacific though.

The cold pool in the Atlantic has been screwing up our summer pattern, increasing pressure over Greenland and forcing the jet stream south over the UK. This has enabled low pressure systems to hit us all summer, when they would usually be 1000+ km to the north. The Azores high has been kept away by the southerly jet, when it would normally reach the southern UK.

[Polarnight]

Today we can only expect a 19c high... Thanks Britain