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Old 09-21-2014, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAlex View Post
LOL. These were the maps they made last year around this time. We saw how accurate those turned out for much of the country east of the Rockies.
Finally got around to it... Heres a look at last 6 winters probability from this far out vs actual. lol

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Old 09-21-2014, 10:38 AM
 
1,292 posts, read 1,043,189 times
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Since when was 2012-2013 so above average?
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Old 09-21-2014, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Finally got around to it... Heres a look at last 6 winters probability from this far out vs actual. lol
Lol what lousy predictions.
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Old 09-21-2014, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Maybe they need to forget their idea about global warming in North America. Europe yes they have warmed a lot. Here barely at all.
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Old 09-21-2014, 11:47 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,318 posts, read 17,221,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saritra View Post
Since when was 2012-2013 so above average?
That caught my eye too. I thought 2012-2013 was pretty cold and decent, unless it just seemed that way after the record warmth of the previous winter.
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Old 09-21-2014, 11:53 AM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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NOAA's seasonal forecasting ability is ****.....


2012/13 was mild here in Chi-land, with the exception of a cold spell during the second half of February that lasted into March. Officially the 25th mildest winter in Chicago since 1872 with a three month mean of 29.6F. Coldest winter was 1903-04 (18.3F). Warmest 1877-78 (37.2F).


Midway's date (of which 1942-1980 was official) coldest winters were as follows


1935-36: 18.4F
1978-79: 18.5F
1976-77: 18.9F
1962-63: 19.1F
1977-78: 19.2F
2013-14: 20.3F


West suburban Aurora had a winter mean of 15.9F in 76-77'

Last edited by chicagogeorge; 09-21-2014 at 12:33 PM..
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Old 09-21-2014, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilovemycomputer90 View Post
That caught my eye too. I thought 2012-2013 was pretty cold and decent, unless it just seemed that way after the record warmth of the previous winter.
Yeah me too. February ended up cold and BDR had 8th snowiest winter.

I guess A disclaimer with averages should be that it's a blend of all 90 days, we still had polar plunges frozen ponds but overall that's the scope. I guess puts the bigger anomalies into bigger perspective.

Also, the legend is different in each. Darker orange for 2012-13 is +3 above while darker Orange for 2011-12 is +6 above

Anyway...Poor NOAA. lol
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Old 09-22-2014, 06:00 PM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Bastardi had this interview a day or two ago about his thoughts on the upcoming winter

DC and Philly look out.... Southern Plains too will see biggest deviations from average. He is talking winters like 02-03 and 09-10' as being the closest analogs

https://t.co/DqUnwsKTwi
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Old 09-22-2014, 10:09 PM
 
Location: Miami,FL
2,886 posts, read 4,107,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saritra View Post
Since when was 2012-2013 so above average?
It was really warm here in miami just like last winter. Seriously I can't remember the last time we had 2 winters in a row where the temperature failed to fall to 45f(7c)(our typical winter minimum is 39f(4c) if you're using 1985-2005) and the majority of winter days with highs in the 80s, Not that i'm complaining. It really helped the ULTRA-tropical plants to rebound. Trees like guanabana can be killed with temps as high as 41f(5c) so these warm winters have allowed them to get reestablished.
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Old 09-22-2014, 10:58 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
Reputation: 5895
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
NOAA's seasonal forecasting ability is ****.....


2012/13 was mild here in Chi-land, with the exception of a cold spell during the second half of February that lasted into March. Officially the 25th mildest winter in Chicago since 1872 with a three month mean of 29.6F. Coldest winter was 1903-04 (18.3F). Warmest 1877-78 (37.2F).


Midway's date (of which 1942-1980 was official) coldest winters were as follows


1935-36: 18.4F
1978-79: 18.5F
1976-77: 18.9F
1962-63: 19.1F
1977-78: 19.2F
2013-14: 20.3F


West suburban Aurora had a winter mean of 15.9F in 76-77'

I know you love the Jamstec like Bastardi, but Andrew finds serious flaws with their forecast issued in August.


The Weather Centre: JAMSTEC Model Predicting Harsh Winter Ahead


A popular weather model, the JAMSTEC climate model, is forecasting a harsh winter ahead... but will it verify?


Even though this model certainly is painting an ominous picture, is it a realistic one?


To summarize, the JAMSTEC model is indeed forecasting a very ominous winter to once again hit the United States. However, concerns with the sea surface temperature anomaly forecast for the coming winter could mean the forecast may be flawed.


In a word he finds their SST anomalies unrealistic. Not sure but it might change in September and further down the road. He finds their SST anomalies around Greenland unrealistic and thinks the SST for El Nino are too strong. It just looks bizarre with the entire world warm except for the the whole of the US. Are the Japanese still angry over WWII lol. I don't think I have ever seen the Jamstec predict a mild winter for the US. Maybe they did in 2012. At least I hope they did.
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