Posting most of it without all the images in case link gets broken in future. They acknowledge last years prediction was a Bust.
Looks like NWS Philly likes these analog winters for Philly area.
1905-06
1914-15
1939-40
1941-42
1951-52
1953-54
1986-87
2002-03
PHILADELPHIA/MT HOLLY WINTER ANALOGS FOR 2014-2015
Winter Analogs for 2014-15
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.
OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.
ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.
IN TERMS OF
ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.
WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.
LOOKING AT THE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.
BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.
THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST)
OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.
LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DON`T HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.
SO
HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:
January & February look cold in the east based on those analogs. Here's the Dec-Feb blend of them
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