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The Jamstec model has basically the whole world above average this Dec-Feb minus the US a small part of the UK/Ireland, Eastern Siberia, parts of Brazil, Northeast China, and the ME. If you look at the anomalies they aren't all that large, but my guess is that this model is trying to account for the El Nino that should form by the winter....
The CFSv2 has much more average conditions for western Europe, keeping the major positive anomalies in Russia, Scandinavia, and the Balkans.
The Jamstec model has basically the whole world above average this Dec-Feb minus the US a small part of the UK/Ireland, Eastern Siberia, parts of Brazil, Northeast China, and the ME
The CFSv2 has this for Europe
That is terrible, Europe cannot have a repeat of the last winter season How accurate is this model and do they regularly update it?
That is terrible, Europe cannot have a repeat of the last winter season How accurate is this model and do they regularly update it?
The Jamstec is a "lower latitude" model. Bastardi likes it, but that forecast was from August. Let's see when they update it this month. It may look different.
Joe Bastardi also believes that the Japanese and Euro are the two best models out there for long range forecasting. I'll try to find out what they are saying for Europe this winter.
The Chinese model shows more blocking over Greenland and that is a cold signal for the eastern US and Europe
The Korean model shows the same. A colder than average winter for Europe
My gut is telling me that there will be a Greenland Block in place for much of the winter, and that will impact both me and you (colder than normal). For me, it gets complicated as El Nino also is a driver of our weather, and it depends where it forms in the Pacific. Not so much for Europe.
The Jamstec is a "lower latitude" model. Bastardi likes it, but that forecast was from August. Let's see when they update it this month. It may look different.
Joe Bastardi also believes that the Japanese and Euro are the two best models out there for long range forecasting. I'll try to find out what they are saying for Europe this winter.
The Jamstec model has basically the whole world above average this Dec-Feb minus the US a small part of the UK/Ireland, Eastern Siberia, parts of Brazil, Northeast China, and the ME. If you look at the anomalies they aren't all that large, but my guess is that this model is trying to account for the El Nino that should form by the winter....
The CFSv2 has much more average conditions for western Europe, keeping the major positive anomalies in Russia, Scandinavia, and the Balkans.
Mind explaining how all of canada can be above normal and all the USA below normal. Seems strange to me. How can we have extreme cold in the lower South if the cold air from Canada is warmer than normal?
The Jamstec is a "lower latitude" model. Bastardi likes it, but that forecast was from August. Let's see when they update it this month. It may look different.
Joe Bastardi also believes that the Japanese and Euro are the two best models out there for long range forecasting. I'll try to find out what they are saying for Europe this winter.
The Chinese model shows more blocking over Greenland and that is a cold signal for the eastern US and Europe
The Korean model shows the same. A colder than average winter for Europe
My gut is telling me that there will be a Greenland Block in place for much of the winter, and that will impact both me and you (colder than normal). For me, it gets complicated as El Nino also is a driver of our weather, and it depends where it forms in the Pacific. Not so much for Europe.
My gut is telling me it'll be a cold one here in Europe and December and January will be colder than February
Cold enough to **** off those who expect it to be above average all the time and cold enough to kill every palm tree in the country away from parts of the south coast
Yes yes yes!!
Every location away from the south coast sees lows of -8c or lower everyday for a week!
+ Blizzard
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How accurate is this model and do they regularly update it?
