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East Coast something is brewing, but that rain snow line is tricky
I have seen these percentile maps posted on other websites....we had one in our ND/MN area for this past weekend. I chatted with WPC about how to read these. The 95 percentile graphics are NOT showing this has a 95 pct chance of occurence. It is showing that 95 pct of the ensemble models show LESS than that amount. Hence the 95 percentile snowfall graphics such has only a 5 pct chance of occurrence.
Percentile graphics and chance of occurrence are opposite.
850mb temps and SLP. 999mb storm sits off the NJ/NY coast with High Pressure to the Northeast in north Atlantic. It can only come up the coast not Out to sea. 850mb temps not all that frigid but cold enough for the first big Northeast snowstorm.
WPC Storm tracks. One storm dives with the northern jet stream, one storm rises with the tropical jet stream. Blend and Boom. Too bad there was no blocking near Greenland this would blow up into a historic November storm.
They like it a tad west of Benchmark right now(40/70)
4inches is doable especially since I am only traveling to ocean county which should see even less. 4 inches is plow-able and manageable with notice which clearly this has. fingers crossed
Not a blockbuster storm..... Still impressive for November, and snow that far south.....Also, the Euro has trended east on latest run to match GFS.
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Too bad there was no blocking near Greenland this would blow up into a historic November storm. 
