Good news for drought stricken CA - rainy season off to healthy start (degree, sunshine)
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No rain for the next ten days, making it worse. Also there is a high possibility for a string of 80s for the next ten days. I'm torn, I want rain, but these temps are perfect.
It could rain a little to the north of us later this week:
Straight from the NWS:
Southwest California area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
130 PM PST sun Feb 1 2015
Synopsis...
High pressure aloft will result in dry weather and slightly
above normal temperatures this weekend. Little change is expected
through at least middle week as a ridge of high pressure remains in
place. A frontal system may bring some light rain to the central
coast by Friday or Saturday of next week.
&&
Short term (today-wed)...looks like another gorgeous day across
southwestern California with only a few high clouds moving across
the region this afternoon. Best warming today will be in the
mountains where high temperatures should be around 8 to 14 degrees warmer
than yesterday...with all other locations warming 3 to 6 degrees.
A positive tilted upper ridge axis from well off the Baja California coast will
push into southern and central cal today and persist through at
least Wednesday. It will not be that amplified therefore allowing
some high clouds to ride over the ridge into Southern California.
There will be periods of high clouds making for partly cloudy skies
at times through at least Wednesday with this upper pattern set up.
High temperatures over the next few days will moderate very little with
highs generally in the lower to middle 70s for coast and valley
locations. Interior areas will also be relatively warm for this time
of year with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
With a very weak surface gradient expected over the next few
days...low clouds will likely develop just off the coast of la and
Ventura counties late tonight or early Monday morning. There will be
enough offshore flow across the central coast to keep skies clear
overnight. Low clouds should become more extensive across coastal
areas Monday night/Tuesday and once again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The San
Gabriel valley should see some low clouds and patchy fog as well.
January was pretty lousy for rain again this season. Here on the redwood coast we only got 1.36", just a hair over the paltry 1.35" we got last January. Luckily December was fabulous and we got around 9.75", and as of this morning we got half an inch with up to 6" expected by next Monday, so if all goes well we'll have a Fabulous February and a Miracle March this year.
January was pretty lousy for rain again this season. Here on the redwood coast we only got 1.36", just a hair over the paltry 1.35" we got last January. Luckily December was fabulous and we got around 9.75", and as of this morning we got half an inch with up to 6" expected by next Monday, so if all goes well we'll have a Fabulous February and a Miracle March this year.
Unlikely. All longterm models continue to show colder in the east, and warm and dry in the west. Same old tiring and terrible pattern we have had for two years. How long can this last? I'm so sick of it.
Unlikely. All longterm models continue to show colder in the east, and warm and dry in the west. Same old tiring and terrible pattern we have had for two years. How long can this last? I'm so sick of it.
Models forecast a rainstorm hitting the west coast. Reposting this from the winter thread:
San Francisco got no rain this January, on average the warmest month. First time recorded. Los Angeles got some rain coming from a source to the east. Looks like some rain will reach the west the next week north of San Francisco. A sign the ridge is weakening?
Light rain is already pushing into western Oregon and Washington today and Wednesday ahead of the core AR event. The newly upgraded GFS model, whose resolution was sharpened to 13 kilometers last month, is the most bullish on heavy rain for the upcoming AR. The 12Z Tuesday output (Figure 2) delivers more than 5” of rain to the north part of the Bay Area through the weekend, with the potential for 5” – 10” or more and very strong winds in and near the coastal range through far northern California and southwest Oregon. More than 10” of liquid equivalent could also over mountainous parts of Washington. Hefty precipitation totals are also expected along the central and northern Sierra Nevada in California, with available water vapor close to record-high amounts for February.
Recent numerical model runs have been starting to shift this atmospheric river further south along the California coast, meaning that places at least as far south as the Bay Area are likely to see significant precipitation over the next 7-10 days. While there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the details of this upcoming pattern change, it’s fair to say that someone along the West Coast is going to get a serious soaking, and the focus may well be the northern 1/3 of California. Simulated rain totals for a ~7 day precip event have been very impressive for the North Coast, actually exceeding 20-25 inches of liquid in a couple of recent GFS runs (which is about as high as I can recall having seen in a global model, though it’s possible this could be at least partly due to the recent increase in GFS horizontal resolution).
Recent numerical model runs have been starting to shift this atmospheric river further south along the California coast, meaning that places at least as far south as the Bay Area are likely to see significant precipitation over the next 7-10 days. While there’s still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the details of this upcoming pattern change, it’s fair to say that someone along the West Coast is going to get a serious soaking, and the focus may well be the northern 1/3 of California. Simulated rain totals for a ~7 day precip event have been very impressive for the North Coast, actually exceeding 20-25 inches of liquid in a couple of recent GFS runs (which is about as high as I can recall having seen in a global model, though it’s possible this could be at least partly due to the recent increase in GFS horizontal resolution).
Unfortunately, the only thing we are going to see out of this event in Southern California is a few high thin clouds and highs in the low 70s with lows on either side of 50 for the next few days. Next chance of rain for us isn't until February 17th
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