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The PDO is in a short positive break, similar to what happened during 1957-1961 during the last long-term cold phase. The 30 years of that cold phase, from 1947-77 did provide the basis for extensive cold at the end of the cold phase, and for a period thereafter. Thus, the cold wave that the OP discusses. Similarly, the "warm phase" started in 1977 and ran, depending on who you believe, to 1998 or 2007. I go with the latter. The warmth similarly has lingered since it takes time to cool down both the Arctic and an ocean the size of the Pacific, where ENSO is measured.
We saw some epochal cold last winter and I suspect it will become increasingly common through the end of the 2020's, at which point we may enter another "warm phase."
A competing view is that the 1800's had less amplified cold and warm phases and that we're returning to that era. Frankly, I'm not sure which is correct. I am tired of the agenda-driven doomsday predictions of either cooling (during the late 1970's) or warming (since the late 1980's). Panic is not a good driver of policy.
Are you including the 1980's when you stated "at the end of the cold phase, and for a period thereafter". And actually, during the "cold phase" which is a misnomer if you ask me, the eastern US is usually warmer in winter (which is all that matters to me lol) than it is during the PDO warm phase. The coldest period for us in the east US, since the 1800's, was 1977-1990 right during the warm phase. And the very year I posted about in my op, 1985, was the "warm phase". Personally I can't wait to return to the cold phase. The cold PDO phase has warmer than average temps in the south and eastern US cause that stupidly warm water along the NW Pacific coast is gone, and then they get their fair share of cold.
According to some of the old-timers I met back in 1985-86, the coldest conditions many of them could recall up to that time were in the mid-1930's; I wonder if any of the better-educated on this subject who post here could find an example or parallel.
Amazing how cold it got at some very low latitudes and sea level.
Just look at these low temps, and where they occurred.
I see 4F at latitude 30N right on the Gulf of Mexico at sea level. Average Jan low there for this date is 43F. We are talking anomalies of 39F. Does anyone know of anywhere else in the world at this latitude, and at sea level that experienced anomalies on this order?
I just find it amazing how the Great Lakes can moderate those freezing temperatures by the time it hits Michigan, only -2 in the UP, compared to Wisconsin!
The Jan 1985 cold wave is one of the strongest ever in most of Western Europe, especially in Italy where temps lower than -20° have been repeatedly reached in widespread areas at sea level in the northern and central regions. Most cities from Basilicata northwards have recorded their lowest temp ever right in 1985.
Florence's record was the most extraordinary one: -21°, something like 8°C under its previous record, possibly close to the lowest temps ever reached in the coldest winters of the Little Ace Ige. Rome also saw record cold temps and heavy snow.
Around mid-January, after the proper cold wave, Northern Italy was hit by its heaviest snowfall in a century.
Incidentally, it was also an extremely cold and snowy month in East Asia and Japan.
How many times do I have to tell you people: this was simply a manifestation of the Eastern North American Cold Epoch, and nothing more. Once the Cold Epoch vanishes for good, a year like this will have no chance of occurring.
Lol, this cold epoch of yours has been going on for a bit hasn't it...
In 1985 in Malta it dropped to 2C/36F, we must be in a long warm epoch...
You really do just make stuff up for this forum. You stated that the Gulf Coast "Not even come close to reaching the teens"? Who are you kidding.
Go back and check the coast of MS, AL, and FL panhandle from 2010 to now.
Just this month:
Mobile, AL 17F
Pensacola, FL 19F
Gulfport, MS 19F
Baton Rouge, LA 20F
Those cities you listed are from that specific section of the Gulf Coast that is prone to colder temps (and Baton Rouge is not on the Gulf Coast). Many other Gulf Coast cities, such as New Orleans, the cities on the Florida Peninsula, and the cities on the Texas Coast, including Houston where I am visiting family, have not even approached the teens in decades, when many of them used to quite frequently during one of the peaks of the Cold Epoch.
Anyways, those temps still don't refute my point about the Cold Epoch not happening; I made it clear that it hasn't completely gone away, and can still display ebbs and flows in strength (as seen with the recent cold outbreak this year).
Quote:
Originally Posted by flamingGalah!
Lol, this cold epoch of yours has been going on for a bit hasn't it...
In 1985 in Malta it dropped to 2C/36F, we must be in a long warm epoch...
A weather pattern on the scale of a Cold Epoch wont come and go instantaneously; instead, its a gradual process, which slowly, but surely becomes apparent.
Are you including the 1980's when you stated "at the end of the cold phase, and for a period thereafter". And actually, during the "cold phase" which is a misnomer if you ask me, the eastern US is usually warmer in winter (which is all that matters to me lol) than it is during the PDO warm phase. The coldest period for us in the east US, since the 1800's, was 1977-1990 right during the warm phase. And the very year I posted about in my op, 1985, was the "warm phase". Personally I can't wait to return to the cold phase. The cold PDO phase has warmer than average temps in the south and eastern US cause that stupidly warm water along the NW Pacific coast is gone, and then they get their fair share of cold.
"Cold phase" refers to the long-term state of the PDO. My point was that it influences sensible weather with a material lag. Much of the earlier parts of the last "cold phase" featured warm weather. For example, New York City went over 100 for summers 1952-55 or four in a row, and then again in 1957. Winters were pretty toasty and relatively snowless from just after a December 1948 blizzard (the 1948-9 winter was overall quite warm) until March 1956, when snow and cold returned with a vengeance. The winters of 1957-8, 1959-60 and 1960-1 were quite cold and snowy for at least parts of them. While the winters of 1971-2, 1972-3, 1974-5 and 1975-6 (despite a bitter January) were generally mild and relatively snowless, big snows and/or cold returned for 1976-7, 1977-8, 1978-9, 1981-2 and of course the subject of the opening post. Thereafter the "warm phase" really showed its fangs with only January 1987 (snow), December 1989 (cold), March 1993 (the "storm of the century"), the winters of 1993-4 and 1995-6 being exceptions. The first decade of the "00's" were in fact characterized by snow and cold.
The point is that there is no reason why we at some point don't repeat January 1985.
The other factor is that the perfect factors for cold need to occur when sun angle is relatively low and the surrounding ocean is cold. The all-time cold temperature for KNYC is February 9, 1934, when we hit -15F. After that date record minimums actually rise rapidly because of the waxing sun angle.
Similarly during the summer, perfect setups for heat need to occur in late June-mid-August to produce triple-digit readings. While early September has a few of those (September 1953 being notable) the declining sun angle makes it hard to get too much over 90 that late. Similarly while May can have some extreme heat triple digits don't happen because the ocean is still cold.
Examples are 1969, 1986 and 1987 where the period around "Old Memorial Day" produced temperatures of 96 or 97. 1969 and 1986 turned into cool summers as of mid-July.
. Many other Gulf Coast cities, such as New Orleans, the cities on the Florida Peninsula, and the cities on the Texas Coast, including Houston where I am visiting family, have not even approached the teens in decades, when many of them used to quite frequently during one of the peaks of the Cold Epoch.
Oh really. I guess a low of 21F in 2010, and 23F in 2011 at Houston Hobby (the one between Houston and the coast) is not what you would consider "even approached". Get lost. 21F is very close to the teens. Not even approaching the teens would be above 25F. Stop trying to mislead people on this forum. And if you go to Houston Intc airport north of the city they hit 19F in 1996. That is not "decades".
I like how you backtrack and switch to the lower Gulf Coast once I proved you wrong. No mention of Charleston or Savannah huh. Stop misleading people on this forum. No one takes your posts seriously.
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