What does your weather forecast usually get wrong? (average, storms, degree)
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Met Office usually overestimate/underestimate everything. If they show a day with clear skies from dawn to dusk, there will probably be widespread cumulus clouds during the afternoon. If they show cloud, it will probably turn out to be sunny. If they show a low of 20C in July, it will probably fall to 15C. If they show a high of 28C in August, it will probably reach 30C.
The first two days are usually forecast accurately, anything after that is mostly hokum except for summer where this rule doesn't apply due to slightly more stable-ish conditions.
I agree with you OP, the BOM seems to be often pessimistic in terms of sunshine. Partly cloudy or mostly cloudy often ends up being mostly sunny in Sydney, while rainy/cloudy is often partly cloudy with a shower. (From my little experience so far).
In Nice, high temps are overestimated in spring. 20-22C high weeks in April often end up being 16-19C. Winter low temps are underestimated as well, when 2-4C is forecast it usually ends up a more normal 5-7C.
In summer, it's abundantly sunny with most days recording over 10-12 hours of bright sunshine, yet the forecast always predicts a bunch of partly cloudy days which end up entirely clear.
I agree with you OP, the BOM seems to be often pessimistic in terms of sunshine. Partly cloudy or mostly cloudy often ends up being mostly sunny in Sydney, while rainy/cloudy is often partly cloudy with a shower. (From my little experience so far).
No, you're right. They are pessimistic. We were supposed to have showers in the past week, and we got just traces. 2-3 days a week on average must have "possible showers" in the description. Don't understand why.
Snow and ice seem to be the most difficult for the NWS to forecast. They'll say an inch of snow or some ice and often it's nothing. This is mostly the case when the temperature is hovering at or near freezing. Just a couple degrees can make a big difference.
In the winter, they just say showers, but they don't say what the sky will be or how much it will rain. Many times it doesn't even rain that much and there is some periods of sun that is not on the forecast.
They forecast snow pretty much all the days of the winter. I'd be super happy if just half of the times they say it's going to snow it actually snowed.
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