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It's looking like this is happening much too far north for a typical winter snowstorm from Philly to Maine or Virginia to Boston. It's not one of those because of where its dropping down. Just too late to round the base and blow up. It would need to happen in Virginia/Del Marva area for a Philly to Boston Snowstorm/Blizzard.
So as this entire winter has been, the trend is NYC north. Pretty dam amazing to see that could happen again where it misses Philly and NJ!!! Nuts
Lets see what happens. Right now the storm/energy is in Northern Canada! I love how these models catch this stuff!!
First notice the first one, very little moisture but more importantly where the storm blows up. East of Maine! Not where we need it to for a snowstorm. We need that to happen much south more.
Then notice the second storm, clipper comes down much south more this weekend and blows up off NY coast. Lots more moisture and the blue and red lines are well to the south which means its damn cold too. Philly misses out because its not happening south enough for them
Then watch the 3rd storm this time coming from the Southwest. Rounds the base of the trough down south and like any other storm coming from the south, always brings in warm air concerns! Lots of moisture too!
The weekend storm is fascinating because its a clipper that is pushing the cold air down while a coastal forms! Unlike a storm coming from the south, that's why this weekend is all snow and mountain type of snow too since arctic air already in place as well!
seeing early reports for something bigish in the NJ area tuesday-wednesday next week. My guess is that it's too far out to give it any serious thought at this time?
seeing early reports for something bigish in the NJ area tuesday-wednesday next week. My guess is that it's too far out to give it any serious thought at this time?
If you look at the animation you'll see the setup of it. Anytime you have a storm coming from the SW and south you have to worry about the mixing line in the usual coastal areas. If storm stays far enough off shore then this could be a nice snowstorm.
The other thing is, once its off shore enough so is the bulk of the moisture.
Right now its looking like a snow,ice rain thing for coastal areas.
If you look at the animation you'll see the setup of it. Anytime you have a storm coming from the SW and south you have to worry about the mixing line in the usual coastal areas. If storm stays far enough off shore then this could be a nice snowstorm.
The other thing is, once its off shore enough so is the bulk of the moisture.
Right now its looking like a snow,ice rain thing for coastal areas.
Remember... it's the Upper Low position as well.. I haven't talked about an ULL in a while..
The farther south it goes the more chances NYC will have for big snows but right now they aren't in on it.
THE WINDS and COLD Air will be blowing snow around and feeling like nuts!
Does this graphic I made help? It's not happening with this one.. I just want it going over NYC so I can get some good snows but the setup is near the bottom most it can go now.
Now.. about the 3rd storm Wed next week... models been trending colder but I mentioned rain/ice would be involved as of right now..
Guess what GFS just does... Colder... Snowier.
Here's the snowfall total map for the 3rd snowstorm. All you need to realize is that it's now showing its colder and more off the coast with the storm rather than the amounts shown,.
Everyone keeping up? lol
This isn't a blog. Prefer more interaction with everyone.
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