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What exactly does the drought have to do with summer temperatures?
Drought conditions are conducive to extreme heat. Soil moisture acts as a feedback. The more there is in the ground, the more evaporation occurs during the hot summer months which puts humidity in the air which can lead to clouds, which blocks sun, and rain as well and thus cooling the atmosphere... On the flip side, low soil moisture levels in mid latitudes can help build hot air domes in the summer months that are persistent. Great Plains/Midwest had temps reach 120+ degrees during the Dust Bowl as a result of soil moisture degradation.
Recent heat waves in Southeast Europe may have been exacerbated because the lack of rain fall
With the El Niño likely failing and La Niña setting in, that will chill the Pacific. My vote was for "never" this summer but if it happens my vote would be September.
With the El Niño likely failing and La Niña setting in, that will chill the Pacific. My vote was for "never" this summer but if it happens my vote would be September.
Drought conditions are conducive to extreme heat. Soil moisture acts as a feedback. The more there is in the ground, the more evaporation occurs during the hot summer months which puts humidity in the air which can lead to clouds, which blocks sun, and rain as well and thus cooling the atmosphere...
I see, but you do understand that by midsummer, the soil in LA and surroundings is always dry? Even in wet years, it stops raining around late March/early April. In summer, there isn't a lot of moisture left in the ground to evaporate into the air causing clouds and rain....that just doesn't happen. We do occasionally get summer storms but it is monsoonal moisture coming from the south and not related to soil moisture in the LA area. We also get some marine layer in the early summer. That would be coming from the Pacific Ocean, which is always there.
First of all, some of those years are off. The springs of 1983, 1998, 2003, and 2010 were actually transitions into La Niña. In fact, 1998 and 2010 were the start of strong La Niñas. The weather the ensuing summers, in the Northeast (I live near New York City) fit that map pattern beautifully during 1969, 1992, 1998 (yes a La Niña summer) beautifully. The summers of 1953, 1957, 1966, 1983, 1987, and 2010 were in fact torrid. In 1953 we went over 100 in early September. 1966 features 3 or 4 100+ days. 1983 never cracked 100 but we did hit 99 twice or so, once the Saturday after Labor Day. 1987 was hot from May to late August (hot springs are typical in El Niño and 1969 and 1987 typify those though 1987's summer remained hot). 2010 cracked 100 one or two times, but there were lots of 90+ days, including one that hit 97 in both NYC and Portland Maine at either the very end of August or first day or two of September.
We got some temperatures in the 90s in January and our first 100s of the season yesterday in parts of L.A. When do you think we'll see our first 110 F of 2015 within the city of Los Angeles?
A) March
B) April
C) May
D) June
E) July
F) August
G) September
H) October or later (October can easily be hotter than June here)
J) We won't see 110 F within L.A in 2015.
I think we're going to hit 110 F before this month is over so I vote for March!
I am in the DC area and have no idea but, I would venture to say we will see it before you do there. Your average temp is around 80 from what I remember.
So is the case in Southeastern Europe and all over the Mediterranean
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the soil in LA and surroundings is always dry?
Dry at the surface, but deeper in the soil exists moisture (or lack of)
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Even in wet years, it stops raining around late March/early April. In summer, there isn't a lot of moisture left in the ground to evaporate into the air causing clouds and rain....that just doesn't happen. We do occasionally get summer storms but it is monsoonal moisture coming from the south and not related to soil moisture in the LA area. We also get some marine layer in the early summer. That would be coming from the Pacific Ocean, which is always there.
For the first time scientists at ETH Zurich have examined globally the connection between soil moisture and extreme heat with measured data. Their study shows that precipitation deficits increase the probability of hot days in many regions of the world. The results will help to better assess heat risks.
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More widespread than expected
The occurrence probability of an above-average number of hot days after precipitation deficits is more than 70% in most parts of south America, the Iberian peninsula and eastern Australia, and more than 60% in north America and eastern Europe. After wet conditions in these regions, the probability falls to 30% to 40%.
“We knew that in some regions soil moisture greatly affected the number of hot days, because we had shown this in other studies; for example, in southern Europe. However, we did not expect this to be the case in so many regions,” says Seneviratne. An earlier global study had identified significantly fewer regions. However, this study was based on model simulations and focused only on the months of June to August of one year, and thus overlooked large parts of the southern hemisphere.
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Originally Posted by jbgusa
First of all, some of those years are off. The springs of 1983, 1998, 2003, and 2010 were actually transitions into La Niña. In fact, 1998 and 2010 were the start of strong La Niñas.
They may have been transition years, but during those springs, El Nino conditions existed.
Spring of 1983 was El Nino which led to a very hot summer here.
The weather the ensuing summers, in the Northeast (I live near New York City) fit that map pattern beautifully during 1969, 1992, 1998 (yes a La Niña summer) beautifully. The summers of 1953, 1957, 1966, 1983, 1987, and 2010 were in fact torrid. In 1953 we went over 100 in early September. 1966 features 3 or 4 100+ days. 1983 never cracked 100 but we did hit 99 twice or so, once the Saturday after Labor Day. 1987 was hot from May to late August (hot springs are typical in El Niño and 1969 and 1987 typify those though 1987's summer remained hot). 2010 cracked 100 one or two times, but there were lots of 90+ days, including one that hit 97 in both NYC and Portland Maine at either the very end of August or first day or two of September.
That map is pretty, but useless.
It's just showing precipitation patterns when ENSO conditions exist in the spring. What is so useless about it?
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 03-16-2015 at 05:32 AM..
It won't happen in LA. Maybe 100 in October if they are lucky
Why not? It should happen at some point in the year, I'd think. See the link on the Canoga Park neighborhood.
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