Autumn/Fall 2015 Thread (Northern Hemisphere, Sep-Nov) (record, temperature, rainfall, days)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by ChuckG2008

Ahh your January max beats ours 69F is our record high that month, set in that warm winter of 2002 I believe

Interesting, I wonder if Syracuse is the furthest north where Bridgeport has a lower max extreme in January.. Burlington Vermont is 66° in 1995. The 68 for BDR came in 2007 & 2002.

Originally Posted by muslim12

woke up to a beautiful 70 degrees at 7 am in the morning on November 7 that's crazy.

This is all I read.

Originally Posted by srfoskey

It's currently 70 with a dew point of 69. The humidity is just plain annoying. It makes sleeping uncomfortable.

Currently we're getting light rain, which we don't need, since we've gotten roughly 10" of rain in the past six weeks.

NWS NY said the Atlantic ridge was preventing the cold front from going off shore last night. Now it's off shore here. Still not past you yet. A/C went on at 6am this morning automatically. Had to shut it off. Now I got a migraine today.

Winds have shifted here but the real cold air is still behind the clouds you see here

[Cambium]

Current temps and 500mb heights.

Ridge pushed East into Atlantic and looks like pushes up towards Greenland. Blocking coming (Negative NAO)?

Trough moving in but will swing out fast and the Jet stream flattens in the East so we warm up. No big cold inside the trough but Canada is below freezing.

Looks like a ridge popping in the Western U.S. Not sure what that's about.




Compared to this 5 days ago when the ridge was started to pop in the East.

Spoiler

[nei]

high 50s this morning, felt very pleasant. Back to freezing mornings after today. Ugh. Well, most of the week has morning lows around 40°F so not too bad.

Cloudy right now, no afternoon warm-up is expected just hovering right at or just below 60°F.

[Wildcat15]

Funny how it gets warmer as you go north up the coast from Georgia to NC.

Savannah 72°
Charleston 76°
Wilmington 78°

[nei]

Next week looks like it'll have a zonal flow that'll be seasonably warm but nothing special or unusual. Then turning a bit wet at the end of the week. Hope November 11 (Veteran's Day) is dry.

[Cambium]

As the 5C line aloft moves in, some surface location temps are dropping during the day. Some will stay near their overnight temps

Eastern WV Regional Airport 67 to 59 in 5hrs http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMRB.html



850mb temps

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis



Another current 850mb look

The bottom of the freezing line will just get to Kentucky then lift out. So G8RCAT will probably feel the real difference this evening when its crossing over him. Right now it's still 6C aloft but with clouds he's still only near 50. Even with sun surface wont warm up much as the air aloft is dropping

[BullochResident]

Forecast is showing an inch of rain falling Monday, with temps in the upper 50s. Looks like I'll finally be getting a break from this string of above average weather.

[snj90]

Definitely looking a lot better from here. Worst day is November 11th: 68/52 and sunny. Not even slightly as intolerable as the last few days. ****ing finally.

[Rozenn]

Nice and warm over much of France. The Med is the coolest, along with Brittany. Even the low was more than 2°C warmer in Paris than in Nice. Add 10°C to these temps and this is a typical summer heatwave pattern.


Cartes des stations météo en temps réel en France, en Europe et dans le Monde — archives depuis 1880 - Infoclimat

[ral31]

NWS is already showing an area of severe risk next Wednesday.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN CA AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN
THE FOUR CORNER REGION. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION
OF A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS THREAT
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN
AGREEMENT...MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING
NEGATIVELY-TILTED. AT THE SFC...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILES COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE. WILL INTRODUCE A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR
PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY
NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING/DAY 6.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY IN THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ON
FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DOMINANT THE SERN THIRD OF THE NATION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.