Autumn/Fall 2015 Thread (Northern Hemisphere, Sep-Nov) (tornado, snowfall, average, temperatures)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by lilred0005

Ok, what is it going to look like for the Northeastern U.S. for Thanksgiving? I love the cold weather and so far our temps in PA have been much warmer than usual, I am dying for some cold and snow. Yesterday I heard the U.S. model was predicting a ridge in the west then bringing cold to the Northeast around Thanksgiving however the European model was showing the opposite with continued warmth for the eastern U.S.. Anybody???

Thanksgiving looks about seasonable now after a deep trough was being shown. That Arctic cold is happening faster now few days before instead.

More importantly...Keep an eye on this clipper coming down this Friday which will give a "little" snow event to Chicago and Mid West Friday night.

Then it's all going to depend IF a coastal storm does form and what the Clipper does with it. Euro has a 6"+ snowstorm for New England. NWS Burlington says not buying it. GFS just says little mountain snows and no coastal storm.

[BullochResident]

Originally Posted by Infamous92

I don't get why mobile homes even exist in the plains.

Agreed. My guess is that a lot of the smaller towns out there are poor and can't afford stronger housing. Much of central Kansas is farmland, as is most of Oklahoma outside of metro OKC and Tulsa.

Originally Posted by alex985

Forecast for tomorrow is 85/78. Utterly disgusting for this time of year. At least some rain and wind, I guess. I'm ready for some cool and dry weather though. Doesn't seem to be coming anytime soon.

I'm going to be watching KMIA airport this coming week. I really would like to know when they drop below 70 F. Looks like it may finally happen Monday morning.

[Cambium]

Whoops, posted in wrong thread..

Nat Gas prices spiked hard today.. could it be they believe the GFS arctic air coming? Its all related. Energy prices and weather. Thats why Joe Bastardi has specific "Energy clients"

https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/st...74163063660544

[Cambium]

Just like this icon....

Euro12z for Sunday morning has a A purple arctic "tongue" and a 992mb storm near Lake Ontario. #Snowstorm Leaving out areas for your imagination. lol

[Morningrise]

Metro Vancouver just received its first snow of the season in an inhabited area, with a very light dusting at Simon Fraser University at the top of Burnaby Mountain (370 meters / 1214 feet in elevation):

SFU's Burnaby Mountain campus gets first snowfall... kinda (PHOTOS)

Of course, SFU/Burnaby Mountain is probably the most snow-prone inhabited area of the Vancouver region and the rest of the metro area is solidly snow-free (other than the North Shore mountaintops). But still a noteable event. That light dusting is actually about as much snow as we got in lower elevations last winter, right around this time of the year.

[ral31]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA...WRN MS AND FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 545...


VALID 171819Z - 172015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 545 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 545.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
AR EXTENDING SWD ACROSS NW LA INTO SE TX...ALONG WHICH A LARGE-SCALE
BOWING LINE SEGMENT IS ONGOING. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS IS ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS. INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MCD
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
TAKES PLACE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF A SRN PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ENABLE THE
LINE OF STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WHICH WILL MAKE STORM ROTATION LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
ALSO ROTATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS THE LINE
GRADUALLY MOVES EWD. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/17/2015

[Ariete]

Europe might also get a first taste of winter:

[ral31]

Latest SPC update.

[AJ1013]

Originally Posted by BullochResident

Agreed. My guess is that a lot of the smaller towns out there are poor and can't afford stronger housing. Much of central Kansas is farmland, as is most of Oklahoma outside of metro OKC and Tulsa.



I'm going to be watching KMIA airport this coming week. I really would like to know when they drop below 70 F. Looks like it may finally happen Monday morning.

Yup. Normally we get our first low in the 60's in early October and our first low in the 50's during the first week of November. Incidentally today is the date of the latest first 60's on record. Seeing as the low today will not be in the 60's that record will be broken

[BullochResident]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Just like this icon....

Euro12z for Sunday morning has a A purple arctic "tongue" and a 992mb storm near Lake Ontario. #Snowstorm Leaving out areas for your imagination. lol

Now if only the leading edge of that would move 5 degrees farther south, I'd be celebrating.

Edit: This is Euro? Not sure what to think. I've noticed the forecast lowering my morning lows on both Monday and Tuesday, so maybe it will plunge farther south.

Originally Posted by AJ1013

Yup. Normally we get our first low in the 60's in early October and our first low in the 50's during the first week of November. Incidentally today is the date of the latest first 60's on record. Seeing as the low today will not be in the 60's that record will be broken

Last time KMIA was at 69 F was May 6th. 195 days as of today and counting. Not sure what the record there is for longest stretch of continuous 70 Farenheit+ weather. They must be close to breaking it.