Winter stability map (day, dew point, normal, predict)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by tommyFL

This past winter was not an average winter in either Miami or CT. Those are max temp departures; look at the min temps.

Exactly... Go look at the min departures as well. You have to look at everything, not just 1 extreme temp per year. Do a map that shows Lows and Highs or Mean departures. Then you'll really see who's stable or not. I knew something was missing. Boston and Buffalo are not as stable as Atlanta.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Exactly... Go look at the min departures as well. You have to look at everything, not just 1 extreme temp per year. Do a map that shows Lows and Highs or Mean departures. Then you'll really see who's stable or not. I knew something was missing. Boston and Buffalo are not as stable as Atlanta.

Except it's averaging over the most extreme temperature over many years, so it's the maximum deviation you'd see on average each year. The most extreme is part of a larger distribution, so it's still indicating the amount of variation at one end. Another alternative is to look at standard deviation. For each of those three, standard deviation in January minimums:

Buffalo: 11.1°F
Boston: 9.9°F
Atlanta: 10.0°F

About the same.

[tommyFL]

tom77falcons understands the true purpose of this thread...it is more to do with hardiness zones seemingly inappropriate for their averages than wacky temperature swings

Let's look at number of times each winter the temp drops 10F or more below average

Bridgeport: January average low - 23F. # times 13F or below: 11
Miami: January average low - 60F. # times 50F or below: 12

Bridgeport: January average high - 37F. # times 27F or below: 9
Miami: January average high - 76F. # times 66F or below: 7

Now let's look at positive departures

Bridgeport: January average low - 23F. # times 33F or above: 21 during DJF
Miami: January average low - 60F. # times 70F or above: 17 during DJF

Bridgeport: January average high - 37F. # times 47F or above: 21 during DJF
Miami: January average high - 76F. # times 86F or above: 1 during DJF

Miami is more stable for everything except negative departures for min temp.

[The East Frisian]

Dunno if such a chart exists for Europe- but my city would have a winter stability of about 15°F.
Average Min is -1°C / 30°F annual extreme minimum is about -8°C / 17°F and the highest winter minimum usually about 7°C / 45°F.
As for the maxima: Average Max: 4°C / 40°F, highest average winter maximum 11°C / 52°F, average lowest winter maximum: -4°C / 24°F.

So generally its a pretty stable winter climate here near the North Sea Coast, i would expect the lowest stability in Germany in the Alpine foothills, where it is possible to have winter maximums close to 20°C / 68°F during Föhn conditions but also maximums well below -10°C / 14°F during severe continental cold waves.

[alex985]

Originally Posted by tommyFL

This past winter was not an average winter in either Miami or CT. Those are max temp departures; look at the min temps.

I was going to say. This past winter was definitely warmer and more stable compared to average.

[Glacierx]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Animation of the maps using a 2 second delay.

International Falls is 30-35 in Winter and 10-15 in Summer.

I believe Olympia, WA in the corner there 15-20 in Winter and 20+ in Summer

Cool map, but that is most definitely NOT Olympia, WA. Olympia is the one to the right of that red dot. The red dot is Aberdeen, a solid hour drive away. I know because my brother-in-law used to live in Aberdeen.

[alex985]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Exactly... Go look at the min departures as well. You have to look at everything, not just 1 extreme temp per year. Do a map that shows Lows and Highs or Mean departures. Then you'll really see who's stable or not. I knew something was missing. Boston and Buffalo are not as stable as Atlanta.

The Inland South can see temperature swings just as big if not bigger than those cities. Though it would be more common in say, Nashville than Atlanta.

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Those departures sound off. I see the max was 18 below normal on 1/7/14 and then only 7 above normal on 1/11/14.

I don't know what you mean by that. The average high there in January is 69.

but... here's Miami Max Departures. You can clearly see it's not as unstable.

Yes, Miami definitely tends to be more stable than the northern part of Florida.

[alex985]

^^ I can attest to that. Tallahassee definitely is more unstable than Miami.


Look at January 2014 (though that month was colder and more unstable than normal, but not extreme):


http://classic.wunderground.com/hist...eqdb.wmo=99999


From a high of 68 F to 35 F in one day, then later in the month from 75 F to 37 F in 3 days.

[nei]

If the map of winter maxes, the Midwest-Northeast difference would be larger. We were able to get night 30°F below average this winter, but places in the midwest with warmer averages got single-digit maxes, which are rare here.