Eastern U.S. Soaker Storms/Front/Hurricane Sept 29-Oct 5, 2015 (may, flood, zone)

[alex985]

Originally Posted by AJ1013

Out to sea please!

It's that damn hurricane that's blocking our front

74.7F now and it feels great so sick of 80F mornings.

Miami had a low of 80 F.....how on Earth was it 74.7 F at KB?

[Cambium]

Just released by WPC.. 3 day rainfall. Yes... that's 20 inches.

Lets not focus on the "landfall" or "OTS" with Joaquin.. this is some serious rainfall because of 3 main things. Front, Upper Low, Hurricane.


And like I said early yesterday... trends were looking better for New England. Southern New England still in the game for some heavy rains but that will depend on the track of Joaquin.

[nei]

How much of the Carolinas rainfall is dependent on Joaquin's track? If Joaquin goes out to sea won't it be completely different totals?

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

How much of the Carolinas rainfall is dependent on Joaquin's track? If Joaquin goes out to sea won't it be completely different totals?

Good question.. It's all feeding into the area because you have a counterclockwise spinning Low in the Southeast, a front backing in and a counterclockwise spin with Hurricane so the flow is right into the Carolinas..

Maybe this helps.. Future 48hr radar loop based off the WRF model

[alex985]

Whoa, 20" predicted according to that model in Greenville, SC. Looking at the forecast for the next few days...NWS is only calling for about 3-4" maybe they're doing the typical NWS playing it safe BS

[AJ1013]

Originally Posted by alex985

Miami had a low of 80 F.....how on Earth was it 74.7 F at KB?

Not my measurement. I was looking at wunderground and the reading closest to me was 74.7F

it felt like 75/76

The bouy near Virginia Key had a low of 77.9F

[Cambium]

NWS Rarely uses "Historic".. Widespread 5-10 with a band of 10-15 inches of rain! Where will that band setup!? and take a look "Slow moving Upper Low" and the Hurricane the causes.

[Cambium]

And the Hurricane is causing vibrations in Alabama? Maybe the pressure is causing ground vibrations or noise? Very interesting!

https://twitter.com/simpsonwhnt/stat...250496/photo/1

"Steve Jones’s @alabamaquake showing some signs of Joaquin’s energy in #Huntsville #valleywx"

Detecting Joaquin’s influence in Huntsville | WHNT Weather Blog

[Cambium]

Take a look now at the Steering flow for 250-850mb (940-949mb) Compared to 2 days ago...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom =&time=

Will that Upper low phase with the Hurricane? If not, then I see path of least resistance is to the right of the white line

[Psychoma]

NWS out of Greenville, SC (GSP) usually does a good job with this area. I'll let you know if we end up with the 3" or the 15"+!