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View Poll Results: When will London reach 20c?
Before 1 Mar 1 2.44%
1-15 Mar 0 0%
16-31 Mar 1 2.44%
1-15 Apr 10 24.39%
16-30 Apr 5 12.20%
1-15 May 9 21.95%
16 May or later 15 36.59%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-02-2016, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Athens
142 posts, read 141,752 times
Reputation: 115

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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex985 View Post
I believe it was Heathrow and if only six failed to reach 20 C, that means 24 Aprils did reach 20 C. What would be the point of even looking up May?
I meant a comparison of the whole time-series from Heathrow and not the last 30 years.That would settle the argument
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Old 05-02-2016, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,139 posts, read 29,456,548 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mesogeiakos View Post
I meant a comparison of the whole time-series from Heathrow and not the last 30 years.That would settle the argument
No, it wouldn't. Climatic periods are measured in 30 years - 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010. London's climate, in line with the rest of the world, is warming. What the weather was doing 100 years ago, is irrelevant today.

Just admit that you're wrong and we can go back to normal.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Athens
142 posts, read 141,752 times
Reputation: 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by dunno what to put here View Post
No, it wouldn't.
Actually it would since this is not a meteorological parameter that is examined as per the standard way of 30 year intervals.Usually the Met Office provides averages of 30 year periods for specific parameters.This one is just very specific/sporadic and needs way more time depth.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,139 posts, read 29,456,548 times
Reputation: 8819
No.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:17 PM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,539,654 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean York View Post
Heathrow, and what on earth are you going on about? If only 6 out of the last 30 April's haven't recorded 20c, then what does that tell you?

Seriously, is this a wind up?
Seems so, since the average absolute max for April is 21.5c. 24 out of the last 30 years at Heathrow have seen 20c by either March or April, and every year in Heathrow's history has seen 20c in May.

Even May 1996 - one of the coldest, if not the coldest on record - saw 26.1c.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:22 PM
 
Location: Athens
142 posts, read 141,752 times
Reputation: 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
Seems so, since the average absolute max for April is 21.5c. 24 out of the last 30 years at Heathrow have seen 20c by either March or April, and every year in Heathrow's history has seen 20c in May.

Even May 1996 - one of the coldest, if not the coldest on record - saw 26.1c.

Yes but the problem here is that we are examining only 30 values.It's not like we are examining a meteorological parameter like mean maxes/mins where we can safely derive a climatic statistic. We need more time depth to determine this.I say go back and check each year on Heathrow's time-series.It makes more sense.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:48 PM
 
Location: Athens
142 posts, read 141,752 times
Reputation: 115
Ok I have done it for you.So from 1960 (when records for T in Heathrow begin) until 2015 we have 35 out of 56 Aprils that registered a 20C.So you are right for the most part but what is interesting is that it's due to the last 20-30 years that we get this result.I am pretty sure that if we check an even longer time series in London we'll get a different result

Here's the link

Query results
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:50 PM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,539,654 times
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That doesn't include the years where 20c was recorded in March. Whatever way you look at it, most years will see 20c before May begins. I posted averages for another London station from around 1850-1900, and April was warmer then than it is now.

The average absolute max for the spring months are 17.3c for March, 21.5c for April and 25.5c for May.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:55 PM
 
Location: Athens
142 posts, read 141,752 times
Reputation: 115
Right,what's the London station with the longest time series?We can check through ECAD both March and April and I reckon we'll have a clearer idea.
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Old 05-02-2016, 04:09 PM
B87 B87 started this thread
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,539,654 times
Reputation: 3094
Friday 6th looks like it'll be the first day to break 20c and also 70f/21c. Saturday 7th will be the first 75f day of the year, and either day next weekend could be the first 25c day.
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