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During the summer, they said to get ready for a really wet October/November in the Southwest. Then they said November/December. Last 6 weeks here have been abnormally dry. Now here we are half way through November with very little rain/snow in the forecast.
Is this El Nino going to happen or is it going to be a disappointment to the parched west coast?
For the west coast, El Niño's effects don't really kick in till mid or late December when the jet stream moves south and strengthens.
This is especially true during a strong El Niño year (like the present one). Since the primary mechanism by which El Niño influences California precipitation is through strengthening (and shifting southward) the subtropical branch of the Pacific jet stream, it stands to reason that there would be relatively little influence until later in the winter (say, December or January) when the jet stream is actually in a position to bring regular storms to California.
During the summer, they said to get ready for a really wet October/November in the Southwest. Then they said November/December. Last 6 weeks here have been abnormally dry. Now here we are half way through November with very little rain/snow in the forecast.
Is this El Nino going to happen or is it going to be a disappointment to the parched west coast?
El Nino is not a storm!
El Nino is when their is unusually warm water tempuratures in the Eastern Or Central equitorial pacific.
Given El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which are in effect, the probability of rainfall in your area during the next few months is elevated, not guaranteed.
Yes. El Niño conditions are present. I don't ever remember them saying we would receive rainfall by October. Given past El Niños, I don't see why anyone would predict rains in October for the southwest with any sort of confidence, seeing as how the effects are usually not seen until December like someone else has mentioned. This is when the subtropical jet really ramps up and brings storm systems into the southern tier of the US.
Yes. El Niño conditions are present. I don't ever remember them saying we would receive rainfall by October. Given past El Niños, I don't see why anyone would predict rains in October for the southwest with any sort of confidence, seeing as how the effects are usually not seen until December like someone else has mentioned. This is when the subtropical jet really ramps up and brings storm systems into the southern tier of the US.
Remember the record setting rainfall we had in both July and September; it already HAS effected us.
Remember the record setting rainfall we had in both July and September; it already HAS effected us.
Yes. But those are much more indirectly related. Something that we could not obviously forecast with confidence, seeing as how most of the rain we got this summer caught us all completely by surprise.
Yes. But those are much more indirectly related. Something that we could not obviously forecast with confidence, seeing as how most of the rain we got this summer caught us all completely by surprise.
But it came as a result of El Niño which caused those anomalous SST off our shore (mid to upper 70s opposed to our normal upper 60s to lower 70s). It created a very active hurricane season off of Western Mexico and allowed some of those hurricane remnants to make their way to our shores.
San Diego also got some strong thunderstorms on November 4th which were caused by the cold front hitting those anomalously warm SST (still above 70 F in early November).
I am predicting that our winter will deliver as promised with lots of rain but steadily cooling temperatures and SST. I think we will "flip the switch" from El Niño to La Niña in May or June.
During the summer, they said to get ready for a really wet October/November in the Southwest. Then they said November/December. Last 6 weeks here have been abnormally dry. Now here we are half way through November with very little rain/snow in the forecast.
Is this El Nino going to happen or is it going to be a disappointment to the parched west coast?
I completely agree! It's been yet another disappointment so far, despite the National Blather Service's confidence in a wet stormy winter across California & the SW. Maybe there's some hope for the January through March period, but I think it's essentially a bust. I remember many past El Niños where significant precipitation began in December (or even November in some cases), but not this time! The NWS's long range outlooks are mostly bogus. What's really upsetting is when they make these predictions and get people's hopes up for drought relief, but they turn out to be nothing more than hot air (pardon the pun).
Quote:
Originally Posted by NativeOrange
Yes. El Niño conditions are present. I don't ever remember them saying we would receive rainfall by October. Given past El Niños, I don't see why anyone would predict rains in October for the southwest with any sort of confidence, seeing as how the effects are usually not seen until December like someone else has mentioned. This is when the subtropical jet really ramps up and brings storm systems into the southern tier of the US.
Last summer, the 90 day outlook for CA & the SW was for above normal precipitation throughout October, November, and December. Even so, here it is the latter part of December ... and since you agreed that December is the month where the effects from El Niño are seen, tell us where all the precipitation is for CA & AZ. Where's that subtropical jetstream???
Quote:
Originally Posted by ABrandNewWorld
I am predicting that our winter will deliver as promised with lots of rain but steadily cooling temperatures and SST. I think we will "flip the switch" from El Niño to La Niña in May or June.
So far, most of the Pacific moisture has veered to the Pacific Northwest, and the SW is left mostly dry (once again). Also, temperatures here in the SW this month have been fluctuating up & down (first a warm spell, then a cold spell, and back to warm, then cold again after Christmas). This is more typical of a La Niña pattern ... so as far as I'm concerned, the effects of La Niña area already taking shape.
I don't know about California but in the Northeast we're having a torchy December, very typical of strong El Niños. This December resembles December 1982 quite a bit.
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