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View Poll Results: When do you think La Nina will happen?
Spring 2016 3 4.84%
Summer 2016 16 25.81%
Fall 2016 23 37.10%
Winter 2016-17 11 17.74%
After Feb 2017 9 14.52%
Voters: 62. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-18-2016, 02:24 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
La Nina winters usually have wild swings in temps (at least for the Midwest) and storminess for Northern US.
Look at the position of the jet during a typically strong La Nina winter. This isn't contingent on either a positive or negative AO index.



Those look like typical over hyped TWC maps lol or Accu-W.


I looked at temps for the three strongest La Ninas (73-74, 75-76, and 88-89) and I would take them without hesitation.

Avg three month mean for the Jan to Mar period using 1971-2015 averaged 36.9F.


Jan thru March 74 here averaged 37F. 1976 averaged 38.6F, and 1989 averaged 37.8F. Every single strong La Nina winter was above the mean for that period of record of 1971-2015.

Keep in mind the AMO index for all three of those winters was negative. We are now positive AMO. These winters should be without doubt better than 2014 and 2015. That is all that matters to me.
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Old 04-18-2016, 02:56 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Those look like typical over hyped TWC maps lol or Accu-W.


I looked at temps for the three strongest La Ninas (73-74, 75-76, and 88-89) and I would take them without hesitation.

Avg three month mean for the Jan to Mar period using 1971-2015 averaged 36.9F.


Jan thru March 74 here averaged 37F. 1976 averaged 38.6F, and 1989 averaged 37.8F. Every single strong La Nina winter was above the mean for that period of record of 1971-2015.

Keep in mind the AMO index for all three of those winters was negative. We are now positive AMO. These winters should be without doubt better than 2014 and 2015. That is all that matters to me.
The amo has been running neutral to negative for past 3 years.
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Old 04-19-2016, 12:03 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
The amo has been running neutral to negative for past 3 years.


No it isn't. Check it out right now it is positive. Since 1998 it has been positive the vast majority of the time. And the last 11 months have been positive. And it never ran negative for the past three years. Where do you get your climate info from I'm just curious?


You seem to be convinced that a cold pdo and La Nina means cold weather for the Southeast. That is just plain wrong. Go to your own states climate page and they will explain to you. Nothing worse for us than a warm PDO putting a giant ridge over Seattle all winter like 2014 and 2015. Cold water off of Seattle means a much better chance of warmer weather for us.


Here you go:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/co...n/amon.us.data
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Old 04-19-2016, 03:47 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,407,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
No it isn't. Check it out right now it is positive. Since 1998 it has been positive the vast majority of the time. And the last 11 months have been positive. And it never ran negative for the past three years. Where do you get your climate info from I'm just curious?


You seem to be convinced that a cold pdo and La Nina means cold weather for the Southeast. That is just plain wrong. Go to your own states climate page and they will explain to you. Nothing worse for us than a warm PDO putting a giant ridge over Seattle all winter like 2014 and 2015. Cold water off of Seattle means a much better chance of warmer weather for us.


Here you go:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/co...n/amon.us.data
Im just skeptical that's all, the epo and positive pna can easily over ride the positive ao and nao as they did in 2014 and bring us extreme cold. Also with a positive pdo and cold locked up in the arctic next winter, I fear for a repeat of 1985, that cold will have to break away some point and knowing our luck it will be us.
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Old 04-19-2016, 05:52 AM
 
29,531 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Weak La Nina by July? Moderate by September?

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Old 04-19-2016, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Im just skeptical that's all, the epo and positive pna can easily over ride the positive ao and nao as they did in 2014 and bring us extreme cold. Also with a positive pdo and cold locked up in the arctic next winter, I fear for a repeat of 1985, that cold will have to break away some point and knowing our luck it will be us.

Well Jan 85 was a weak La Nina with a positive PDO and a solidly negative amo. And I was responding to comments about a strong La Nina, not weak. And hopefully we should be flipping back to negative PDO. I sure hope so.

But you should be skeptical cause you live in a completely unstable borderline subtropical climate with wacky crazy temperature extremes expected in winter. You wouldn't have to worry if you lived in Australia or the Med.
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Old 04-19-2016, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,929,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Weak La Nina by July? Moderate by September?

A weak La Nina and cold AMO with positive PDO could be very very bad indeed. That is why I constantly look at water temps off of the PNW.
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Old 04-19-2016, 09:23 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,520 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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I wonder what the odds of CPC officially calling the end of Nino is with next months update. (New Discussions are usually out by mid month)


I noticed the Bulletin for April hasn't been updated yet though.


Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks
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Old 04-19-2016, 09:43 AM
 
Location: Saskatoon
753 posts, read 838,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
A weak La Nina and cold AMO with positive PDO could be very very bad indeed. That is why I constantly look at water temps off of the PNW.
What effects would that have on the weather in North America at that time of year?
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Old 04-19-2016, 10:27 AM
 
Location: Lexington, KY
12,278 posts, read 9,454,092 times
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At this point I think summer is going to be dry regardless.
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