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Expect PDO probably will still be positive for this upcoming winter which might change the flow of the jet down stream in the east? . Not sure where the AMO is going. Seems likes it's hovering around neutral to slightly positive right now.
2013 to 2014 was no where near mild here or in the Southeast. Far from it. So you just can't go by a bunch of analog maps like that.
Not a strong correlation though between SE US lowest winter temp and the average anomaly of the whole winter. That graphic included the winter of 2013-14 when Mobile, AL went down to 14F lol.
I'll bet if you check all those years, you will see quite a few with low temps falling below the current USDA zone for places in the Southeast. All the cold air over the northern US always every winter without fail will at least once make its way all the way down to the Gulf Coast and beyond.
Bottom line, don't count on that graphic helping your region avoid a brutal low temp this winter.
Either you or Cambium posted about them before. They very much don't believe in global warming, and also keep talking about a huge cool down due to low sun activity, cold PDO and cold AMO. I also heard before that low sun activity hits Europe more than North America. I think that was Judah Cohen that stated that.
Anyway, they are still very firm in their belief that a strong to record strong Nina is coming. They don't believe in analogs, and never use them. They did call last winter right on, but were off in 2015. Here Comes La Nina! wt360 Helps Local Farmer Get Ready.
April 18th, 2016 | wt360Did you see the stories in the Wall Street journal last week that said government sources in Australia and NOAA say a 50% chance of La Nina this year. REALLY! Typical government where 50% is a high confidence forecast. How'bout this prediction wt360 made a year ago - moderate to strong La Nina by Summer and if you asked us now we'd say 100% certainty we're headed for strong to potentially near record strong La Nina; weak by June, moderate by July, strong by September and very strong during Winter.
They seem off on this bit which is from their April blog:
Most of the computer models now show a strong to potentially record strong La Nina in the making. Weak by June, moderate by July and strong to very strong by Fall. Not at all surprising as what goes way up...usually comes way down so very normal to have a record strong El Nino followed by a very strong to near record strong La Nina.
What's it all mean? Well if you just factored in ENSO (El Nino - La Nina cycle) you'd make some really bad long term projections but we factor in 24 and a boat of load of statistics which all say we're headed for a scorching hot/drought Summer in the Midwest and East, a very active hurricane season and then a very cold Fall-Winter. If you watched our Seeds of Success video series you'll see we made many of these projections a year ago including the devastating heat and drought that is plaguing Brazil's corn crop with a big rally likely in June and July this year.
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Are we all happy now? 
. Not sure where the AMO is going. Seems likes it's hovering around neutral to slightly positive right now.
But like he says, this Chinese model brings on a strong Nina which now doesn't seem very likely.
