Dec 27-29, 2015 Storm (snow, blizzard, USA, moving)

[Wildcat15]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Man me and you need that track to shift south a bit and we're in!

And wouldn't you know it I'm right on the line between rain and t-storms in that graphic, lol.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by G8RCAT

And wouldn't you know it I'm right on the line between rain and t-storms in that graphic, lol.

lol. No surprise, right? lol Yeah, there's something to track for you.. Those little Details will start to come into focus as we get closer now. I think you need a bit of an East shift in the storm coming from the south West.


Can't wait for tomorrow. Will post more stuff and maps.


Canadian just loaded. Same trend. High Pressure moves faster East and that means warmer air can intrude faster into the Northeast. Ugh!

[Cambium]

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/s...81409492504576

[Cambium]

They are using the words "crippling" blizzard for this storm. NAM prints out 2-3 feet in spots for Texas & New Mexico!

https://twitter.com/NWSAmarillo/stat...65057583886336

[Cambium]

5 FOOT+ snow drifts possible.

Blizzard Warnings are out.

Intellicast - Weather Alerts


143 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015 /1243 PM MST
FRI DEC 25 2015/

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/

SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY.

* TIMING...SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS ANDBITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO DEGREES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[chicagogeorge]

This Texas storm could be historic

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/680538981742710785

[Cambium]

I'll be honest, this setup for Northeast is a nail biter. Not secure. It's a "front end thump" type of snow. Meaning the best chance north of Trenton, NJ would be to snow BEFORE the warm air filters in. So basically relying on Cold Air Damming to provide us with the cold. So if the high pressure is off a little say goodbye to snow south of Hartford.


Lets go over the latest NAM and GFS..


Here's NAM6z Monday morning.


Storm coming from the southwest
Strong High pressure dropping down into Ontario
850mb freezing line in thick blue. Any moisture on north side of that line will be snow.

Keep an eye on that line with these images to see how the warm air is moving in.





Now look Tuesday 4am. High pressure in Quebec now. You see that push south along the Appalachians with the 850mb freezing line? That's CAD signature. Notice the moisture starting to move in. So it will be snowing in PA at this time according to NAM.
Rain in South NJ.
Squall line in Kentucky?






Here's GFS for 7am


High pressure holding on strong. All that is snow in New England and sleet starting to mix in CT but the warm air is pushing northward fast





Here's Tuesday 7pm. New storm off the coast forms (TOO LATE!). Its really only snowing in Maine at this point. Too much warm air came in.


That storm that went to the Great Lakes needs to shift east more towards Ohio, Not Wisconsin so warm air doesn't move that far north!

[chicagogeorge]

This may become a freezing rain/ice event for us




Meanwhile the Plains get this

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

This may become a freezing rain/ice event for us




Meanwhile the Plains get this

Gonna be fun watching what happens in the Plains. Yeah, Ice and Sleet a concern for those on the borderline with this.


===============




1st one of the season... Snow total forecast map is out. I haven't seen one from NWS Albany or Boston yet.

We're gonna wake up to a white landscape... FINALLY!!

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Upton, NY

[Cambium]

NWS Chicago always has some nice lengthy detailed discussions.. I will try to pick and choose..


National Weather Service Text Product Display

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
602 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE FOCUS ON THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IS CERTAINLY WITH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT...WHICH IS TRENDING
MORE TOWARD A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN EVENT. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE LARGE
CONCERNS OF ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THERE ALSO IS
CONCERNS THAT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN /WHETHER INITIALLY FREEZING OR NOT/
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES AS MONDAY PROGRESSES AND
CERTAINLY SOME QUICK RIVER RISES. IT IS A BIT CLEARER PICTURE THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS LESS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.


AGAIN IN SUMMARY...THINGS GOING FOR THIS EVENT ARE A STIFF EAST WIND
AND A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO KEEP THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING RAPIDLY...OR AT LEAST MORE RAPIDLY THAN
EVEN THE WARMEST GUIDANCE...AND THUS ALLOW FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE
SEVERAL HOUR DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. MOST CONCERNED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INCLUDING ROCKFORD...WHERE COLLABORATED ICE
FORECASTS WITH WPC AND ADJACENT WFOS IS PRESENTLY AT OR ABOVE 0.20
OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO OFFER SOME SNOW POSSIBILITY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH WITH IT FILLING AM NOT EXPECTING A
WELL- DEFINED DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND AS FAR EAST AS THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO EASE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK INTO UNFAMILIAR
TERRITORY OF BELOW NORMAL BY THE START TO 2016. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY BUT HAVE GONE WITH A WELL-
VERIFYING MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME TO FOCUS ON THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS.