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T'storms and heavy rain likely over the next few days, but severe threat looks minimal in the area.
Quote:
DISCUSSION...Radar depicting scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area. Moisture continues to ramp up with the
morning LCH sounding coming in with a respectable precipitable
water value of 1.73 inches, around 1/2 inch higher than 24 hours
prior. Moisture incoming on a a deepening and strengthening
low level southerly flow, and trending moist southwest aloft.
This all occurring ahead of eastward tracking low pressure
currently over northern old Mexico. Feature progged similarly by
models to maintain a slow eastward trek, moving into central Texas
Thursday and stalling.
Overall little changes to forecast with rains expected. Aforementioned
low will maintain a steady stream of deep layer tropical moisture
over the region. Occasional rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity can be expected as disturbances approach and move across
the area associated with Texas low. Heavy rains will be the
primary threat, with shear profiles such that any severe threat
will be minimal. Latest QPF though this event suggesting area
should see 2 to 4 inches over a period of several days. Should
these numbers begin to trend upward a flash flood watch would
likely be required.
Rains taper off during the latter part of the weekend as upper low
fills and surface front slips across the region. Appears much of
the new week will be dry as ridge builds over the region.
A cluster of thunderstorms came up from Tennessee this evening into central Kentucky and remained organized. Still raining lightly with occasional lightning flashes.
Summer off to a great start here. Yesterday was 7c below average, today has just about managed to beat the lowest June max on record, by 0.3c. It's 9c below average.
Dewpoints on top, Temps on Bottom. Next Thursday morning on left. Next Saturday afternoon on right.
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