February & Early March 2016 U.S Stormy Pattern (Rain & Snowstorms) (snowing, ice)
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NWS Boston believes the Euro. What else is new? They are always quicker to believe no storm all the time and of course they still acknowledge the potential.
In Blue is probably the biggest key part.
In Black is pretty much what I mentioned already this morning.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS MOVES OUT DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE FIELDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL MOVE ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. GIVEN THE DEPTH
OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...A COASTAL LOW COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
CAROLINAS.
THE ECMWF ACTUALLY KICKS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OUT TO SEA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH RATHER THAN USE IT TO FORM A COASTAL LOW.
ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS MERGES THE TWO AND SWINGS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE UP THE COAST DURING MONDAY.
WE FAVOR THE ECMWF AND ITS SLOWER TIMING BUT RECOGNIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR DETAILS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TO CHANGE TIMING FORWARD OR BACKWARD. WE WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND PER THE ECMWF TIMING
Midweek storm should bring a mild winter day (highs in the mid 50s) with lots of rain. An inch is forecast for me, heavy but not drenching. Should remove whatever's left of the snowpack. Jeez, it's already gone! The warmth of yesterday must have been enough to melt it all
Midweek storm should bring a mild winter day (highs in the mid 50s) with lots of rain. An inch is forecast for me, heavy but not drenching. Should remove whatever's left of the snowpack. Jeez, it's already gone! The warmth of yesterday must have been enough to melt it all
Northern New England should lose its snowpack outside of the mountains. Not much left up there.
Yup, Snowpack is no match wth 60s. Then again, depends how much you got. Areas of Mid Atlantic were in the 60s and 70s with snow on ground and still have some. Imagine 70 with snow on ground! I dont think I experienced that. South of me has because I got the water to keep my temps from getting too warm.
Btw.. that little white area on the map is true.. I got patches of snow cover still around.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tkln
Holy crap. We have so much traveling going on next week...figures this will be happening then!
Yeah, looks like it could be a commuting headache. Still early. We'll see..also good to note, Clippers dont bring big accumulations unless either its slow moving or phases with another storm. So while it may be snowy from all the clippers, we in New England dont think much of it.
Saw the Euro12z come in and now we may be onto something?
A look at the 4 main 12z OP models for same hour (Tues Morning)
Notice... GFS Top left has nothing but a weak clipper without much precip.
Canadian Top right has a big snowstorm from Georgia Mountains to Maine
Navgem Bottom left at least trys to hint there is something (another American model)
Euro Bottom Right. Snowstorm NYC to Maine.
FUN.... FUN.... FUN
And just cause I mentioned my mouth watering I might as well show it. LOL
So There's 2 situations. The first one Sunday-Monday (which GFS shows a big NorEaster) should be a miss instead.
The second one Tuesday-Wednesday(which GFS doesn't show anything but Euro and Canadian do) is the big snowstorm.
Can you imagine both are actually snowstorms? 2 big snowstorms 36hrs apart?? That would be an extreme and talked about for years.
I don't think so. In my experience when 1 big storm happens, it takes the energy away from the atmosphere and the other doesn't happen or is as big.
Also, I love what he said and only a video can really explain it.
The arctic front will sit and wait for energy to come in then a storm goes Boom. Where does that front wait?!
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That would be an extreme and talked about for years. 
