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Go hard or go home is how I'm looking at it, I'm really hoping it's a miss, but if it's not give me blizzard conditions, minus the astronomical totals of course.
Go hard or go home is how I'm looking at it, I'm really hoping it's a miss, but if it's not give me blizzard conditions, minus the astronomical totals of course.
Thats the spirit! lol. I'm still baffled this could be happening. Its like timing has been insane for these events this year. Ridge builds in next week so timing of this is insane. Did I just say that twice? Lol
Nws NY.. not highlightling. On phone.. they mention the Jet Streams phasing and the significant snowfall and with wind! Moisture from Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. Boom
Quote:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
604 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BASICALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE PHASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH MOISTURE SOURCES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS IS PART OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM SW
TO NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL STEER AND HELP DEVELOP A
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL CHOSEN...THE
LOW THEN DEVELOPS INTO POTENTIALLY A NOR`EASTER WITH WESTERN
AMPLIFICATION AND ALMOST SECONDARY CYCLONGENESIS AS PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED ON THE WESTERN SIDE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST. HERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THAT COULD TAKE PLACE. WITH A WEAKER LOW AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE...DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE LESS...ALLOWING FOR
MORE RAIN TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...LOWERING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
ALSO...ANOTHER SCENARIO LEADING TO MORE MIXING WITH RAIN AND LESS
SNOW FOR COASTAL AREAS WOULD BE A TRACK THAT TAKES THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST SUCH THAT THE COASTAL REGIONS RECEIVE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...A STRONGER LOW WITH
A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEFORMATION ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW WITH A TRACK JUST INSIDE OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOW...FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MOST DYNAMICS STAYING OFFSHORE.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF
AT LEAST 6 INCHES...MOST OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO FALL SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE IS AROUND 30
PERCENT. THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM IS AROUND 12 INCHES
CLOSE TO WHICH THE ECMWF CONVEYS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN VARIANCE IS THAT OF THE LOW TRACK AND WHETHER
THE REGION RECEIVES MORE NORTHEAST FLOW OR EAST FLOW.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY AND MIXING WITH
RAIN WITH DAYTIME WARMING. MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES PLACE
ALOFT WITH RIDGING MOVING IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
From Raleigh models and what's available and current. Yeah, a lot of models (there's actually more) but this paid source is whats listed. So like right now the only things updating is Short range HRRR and Hi-Res GFS18z.
As far as the Main models.. Next up are the 00z runs which come overnight. I'll check them in the morning. Damn time change makes the Euro come out at 2am. Ugh.
NAM 11pm (maybe sooner? I forget)
GFS Midnight
Canadian GGEM 1am
Euro ECMWF 2am
Just when many down here are buying flowers to plant outside too. I was quite tempted to do the same.
Cambium' spots #70, shows me DC 1-3" but might be tricky going into work if indeed home area gets the
3-6". Unless OPM gives unscheduled leave?
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lol. I'm still baffled this could be happening. Its like timing has been insane for these events this year. Ridge builds in next week so timing of this is insane. Did I just say that twice? Lol
