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Euro00z. Friday morning has the center of the storm over Nei's house. See it? This is showing surface pressure and 850mb temps. In the teens in New England. WARM!
Then watch what happens.....
By Sunday afternoon its below freezing at 850mb.
Then watch...
It doesn't just leave.. Another blast comes down from Canada...
Freezing line at 4500' drops down to Philly and negative teens over New England by Monday evening..
What do you get when you have a strong storm and cold air? Not for here but should be interesting to watch.
"pv" = Potential Vorticity not Polar Vortex. Also note where it's coming from and where the moisture is going to be drawn from.
Tropical moisture, Gulf Moisture, and a storm. Can I get at least 10 drops of rain this time?
Cold air filters in and we'll see if there's moisture around for the higher terrain of NY and VT
Quote:
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An approaching potent pv-anomaly along with the potential
development of a tropical entity near the Bahamas will keep our
weather active heading into the weekend.
Latest global models are in good agreement this morning as strong pv-
anomaly that is coming ashore across the Pacific Northwest quickly
moves out onto the Central Plains and Ohio Valley by the end of this
week. Downstream moisture transport quickly advances northeastward from the western Gulf of Mexico to bring clouds and threat for
showers/periods of rain Friday into Friday night. Best focus for
the rain appears to be west of the Hudson River Friday, then as the
trough becomes negatively tilted Friday night, the rain potential
advances eastward.
The complex part to this forecast is what if any impact from the potential tropical entity . Per the National Hurricane Center, this
system currently has 70% chance of development. Its moisture entrainment and/or `Pre`-event could unfold across portions of the region. Regardless of solution, much needed rainfall appears to be
in the forecast Friday into Friday night.
As the upper trough becomes increasing negatively tilted, surface
low deepens to an average of 980mb near the state of Maine. Tight
pressure gradient and cold advection will pursue into this weekend. H850 values are expected to drop back below 0c and may even drop
back as much as -5C. This would set the stage for some snow across the terrain. Models suggest another wave within the cold cyclonic
flow will impact the northern portions of our region Sunday into
Sunday night with a mixture of rain/snow.
ORD is almost 6F above average to date. MDW to the 17th has a Mean of 62.1F (yesterday's data has not yet been entered).
Waiting for the 5:56AM temperature update. At 4:56AM MDW was still at 73F/23C, ORD at 72F/22C, and IKK at 70F/21C.
Here we go still 73F/23C at 6AM
Official record is 71F/22C on October 1st 1971 (MDW was official station), and October 4th, 2005 at ORD. Latest 70F/21C+ low was 70F/21C, recorded on October 21st 1979 a MDW.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 10-18-2016 at 05:07 AM..
ORD is almost 6F above average to date. MDW to the 17th has a Mean of 62.1F (yesterday's data has not yet been entered).
Waiting for the 5:56AM temperature update. At 4:56AM MDW was still at 73F/23C, ORD at 72F/22C, and IKK at 70F/21C.
Here we go still 73F/23C at 6AM
Official record is 71F/22C on October 1st 1971 (MDW was official station), and October 4th, 2005 at ORD. Latest 70F/21C+ low was 70F/21C, recorded on October 21st 1979 a MDW.
Back to reality for KS today, Dodge won't break 75° today. Meanwhile, we will hit a seasonal 91° (normal high today is 88°)
Dodge City average date of first freeze: October 17!
Yes, which is why 101F is absolutely incredible for the date. Smashes latest 100F+ temp by more than 3 weeks.
Btw
MDW to the 17th
Avg high: 70.8F
Avg low: 55.4F
Mean: 63.1F
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Not for here but should be interesting to watch. 
