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I assume that is skewed by "inertia" that coastal locations (or even places near the great lakes) tend to have due to lagging Sea Surface Temps. I would bet that inland areas have a weaker correlation.
Like for example with very warm Gulf Temps, into the low 90s in many places it would be hard to see Florida quickly cooling down into the winter.
Well it doesn't seem to be a Nina pattern with all the rain we have been getting.
That's becausewe haven't had a La Nina. ENSO has been neutral up until last couple of weeks. We've had near record rainfall. One southwest suburb had over 16" of rain this July
I find it funny that every meteorologist on Twitter has been posting all these cold analogs and maps, yet not a single one said to not take it seriously, till this one when it showed warmth.
That's because the analogs don't match that scenario. Not that it couldn't happen, but we aren't dealing with an el nino winter now
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