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Not sure which maps you were looking at but here's a close up..It might of been the Upper heights you were seeing..
Dec-Jan-Feb Upper Heights. Pretty normal for us (obviously normal in winter means cold and snow)
Then Jan-Feb-Mar what we should focus on is the pattern.. SW Ridge and a Northwest flow with normal-below normal heights in Canada and below normal heights into Eastern U.S
This is heights.. not temps..
As far as temps......
Source for images in next post
But you are showing the real cold in Jan, Feb and March which is the late winter. A very cold March is still better than a very cold Jan if you ask me.
Anyway, you realize this is August right and we are months away from winter. Are you actually thinking these models are accurate this far out?
One after the other, at this early stage in early September, all these long range guys are calling for a brutal winter. Not one has said we have a chance for a mild winter. They better hope they are right cause there will be egg all over their faces.
But seriously, has there been a year, where in early September, they were claiming "oh this winter will be nothing with barely any cold or snow"? No, even last year they didn't say that. They said it would lend itself to mild but still they said El Nino could bring nasty cold as well and they went on to list all the El Ninos that gave brutal cold. I don't see one of them talking about any La Nina's that have brought warmth.
Let's face it, it sells to claim that every single winter is going to be the worst of the worst. It is all media driven hype. This is what corporations are very good at. I wonder what it was like years ago when Americans had only the National Weather Bureau? Far better if you ask me. Accu W and the rest of them suck. I find myself always noticing my local NOAA forecasts is usually the closest to actual temps.
I find the whole corporate weather thing crass and typical over the top American Capitalism at it ugly best. Ugh.
Tom, if the climate models, and the analogs weren't painting a cold winter, none of these forecasters would be so vocal about it. They have to present some evidence for their forecasts.
Here is what Paul Pastelok said in that article
Quote:
Winter is too far away to make an official prediction, Pastelok said, but research so far shows Chicagoans should not expect the tolerable, mild winter of last year.
Quote:
"You will get your share of cold in the heart of winter," Pastelok said.
RELATED: The History of Winter in Chicago
Instead, the city is expected to get hit with cold spells that "come in hard" but don't last for long, particularly in December and January, Pastelok said. February should be "more active" for storms, and because the winter will last longer than usual, Chicago could see more than 40 inches of snow, a bit above average, Pastelok said.
"It's a long, drawn-out winter for you guys. It doesn't improve very quickly in the spring," Pastelok said. "You'll get some snow ... maybe from late November and December, and then it doesn't look like it improves very well in the spring."
NOAA almost always weighs the odds for above normal winters for the US when it comes out with it's seasonal probability forecasts. There is rarely any blue on their maps. Even they have some blue in the Northern Plains this early, which to me means it's going to be colder (unless the PDO crashes). NOAA has a warm bias and we all know this.
How did my reply get into the Summer thread?? Posting this here to keep string going. Sorry
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
But you are showing the real cold in Jan, Feb and March which is the late winter. A very cold March is still better than a very cold Jan if you ask me.
January is mid winter. That's why Paulie said "We may have 2 parts to winter here, maybe an early burst and then January sets the table, goes crazy then it just stays on for a long time"
January setting the table doesn't mean the food is ready to be eaten. Basically saying a 2nd half winter that prolongs into Spring. Hence the J-F-M dark blues.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
If as you say Jan was going to be crazy, then I think there should be deep blue all over that D, J, and Feb map that Paulie shows.
I showed the blue map... Anomaly and Actual temp will look different. I get your point if the maps were about actual temp, January would make it "bluer". But it's the anomaly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
Are you actually thinking these models are accurate this far out?
NO...Fun to speculate isn't it?
Are you actually thinking the PDO will be stronger and be the main influence?
But seriously, has there been a year, where in early September, they were claiming "oh this winter will be nothing with barely any cold or snow"? No, even last year they didn't say that.
"In the Northeast, we've seen a couple of really nasty winters and lots of big storms. And that was without El Niño. El Niño can bring lots of moisture. The question is always, is the cold there when the moisture arrives?"
The moisture may transpire as flooding rains for the mid-Atlantic early, until mid- to late-season when it can be cold enough for snowfall in cities such as Philadelphia and New York City.
Overall, however, the heaviest snow of the season will most likely fall north and west of these areas."
As for late fall and into the early winter season, there is an opportunity for a storm track to come to places like Chicago and Indianapolis, according to AccuWeather long-range forecasters.
Mild air will infiltrate the northern Plains into the fall as warmth that has built up over the summer in the Northwest and western Canada spreads eastward.
"This will start in October then come on strong in November. Temperature departures can range anywhere from 3-6 degrees above normal by November," Pastelok said.
Come winter, snowfall for the region is predicted to be below normal.
In the southern Plains, increased rainfall, below-normal temperatures and limited sunshine will define autumn.
"It may not be extremely cold, but it will be rough to get those sunny days that get those temperatures up during the daylight hours," Pastelok said.
Tom, if the climate models, and the analogs weren't painting a cold winter, none of these forecasters would be so vocal about it. They have to present some evidence for their forecasts.
Here is what Paul Pastelok said in that article
NOAA almost always weighs the odds for above normal winters for the US when it comes out with it's seasonal probability forecasts. There is rarely any blue on their maps. Even they have some blue in the Northern Plains this early, which to me means it's going to be colder (unless the PDO crashes). NOAA has a warm bias and we all know this.
Their long range forecasts are crap, and I know that. Years ago there were no seasonal forecasts. People got what they expected to get, cold in winter and warm in summer lol. Now, everyone has to know what winter will bring months in advance.
My point is that Accu-W and all the other corporations I find have short term 5 day forecasts that are not as accurate as my local NOAA forecasts.
And with no super Nino was anybody in Chicago expecting another freak winter like that? But yet we are supposed to buy that we will get another unbelievable over the top record cold winter after the two we had in 2014 and 15? Funny how we shouldn't expect two mild ones in a row, but you can bet on multiple cold ones in a row? I am convinced the long range guru's are all cold lovers including the Judah Cohen guy.
And if I read Paul right, he is describing a typical winter, combined with a cold March and maybe April. That doesn't sound like a killer brutal winter like 2014 or 15 was. We had the coldest Jan to April period on record I think in many locales in the East in 2015, and I can't imagine that will happen again in just two years. Sure a coldish winter and cool early spring is not the same as what happened in 2015. That was brutal. And if Europe gets blocking and cold like Bastardi is calling for in his winter forecast, then the cold will be shared and hence probably less brutal as opposed to 2014 and 2015 when we were the only cold spot on earth lol.
You did see Bastardi is calling for a return to colder winters in Europe unlike the past few. He has that in his blog. I sure hope so.
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