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An area of severe risk is being shown for next Tuesday.
Quote:
...DISCUSSION...
Model differences/uncertainty persist at this time, with respect to
evolution of the large surface storm system to move across the
eastern third of the U.S. Day 4/Tuesday. However a somewhat more
consistent depiction of major features within the ECMWF and GFS
permits what appears to be a reasonable ability to highlight a 15%
severe risk area from roughly the mid Ohio Valley southward into the
central Gulf coastal region. Within this area, somewhat modest but
sufficient CAPE development should occur ahead of a
strengthening/advancing cold front -- particularly from the Ohio
Valley southward -- to permit development of fairly robust updrafts
by afternoon. Though what appears likely to be a westerly component
to the low-level warm-sector flow field should limit tornado
potential, large hail and locally damaging winds will be possible --
with potential for both rotating storms and lines/line segments.
Convection should eventually weaken overnight, especially over
northern parts of the risk area as storms move into a less-unstable
environment. Risk may linger farther south, as storms move into the
southern Appalachians overnight.
By Day 5/Wednesday, greater uncertainty exists, with the GFS
depicting the front to have moved off the Atlantic and Gulf coasts
by midday, while the ECMWF lingers a trailing, west-to-east portion
of the front over the Gulf Coast States/Carolinas through the
afternoon. Given these differences, will not highlight a risk area
at this time for Day 5.
Risk appears minimal for Day 6, but potential for convection could
increase into the central U.S. Day 7 and into the East Day 8 as the
next storm system shifts out of the Rockies. Model differences are
substantial enough with respect to the details, however, that no
risk areas will be considered at this time.
Would be a very rare 7B here barring a late season cold snap.
Currently 26 and partly sunny.
Here we'll almost certainly have a 6B year because it got to -3 in January. I wonder how often Oklahoma City has a colder winter minimum temperature than Rochester.
Anyway, I'm disappointed that I probably won't get to see snow on campus this year. If my Weather Underground forecast is correct, I won't drop below 30 the next 10 days.
Here we'll almost certainly have a 6B year because it got to -3 in January. I wonder how often Oklahoma City has a colder winter minimum temperature than Rochester.
Anyway, I'm disappointed that I probably won't get to see snow on campus this year. If my Weather Underground forecast is correct, I won't drop below 30 the next 10 days.
Lol, even Indianapolis has seen a milder minimum temperature than Oklahoma City this year, the coldest it has gotten to in Indianapolis this winter has been -1F, so Indianapolis appears also likely to have a 6B winter this season(that is barring any late season cold snaps, which appear highly unlikely right now), I wonder how often Oklahoma City logs a colder minimum low temperature than Indianapolis?
Would be a very rare 7B here barring a late season cold snap.
Currently 26 and partly sunny.
Lol, the warmest winter hardiness zone I've ever seen for Indianapolis has been a zone 8A winter, and that winter minimum temperature that year(winter of 2011-2012) logged an extreme winter low temperature of 11F, and the year 2012 in Indianapolis was indeed the warmest year on modern record, breaking the previous record warm year 1921 by 0.4 Degrees Fahrenheit, that entire year did not have a extreme minima of below 11 Degrees Fahrenheit, (temperature records in Indianapolis date back to 1872).
Lol, the warmest winter hardiness zone I've ever seen for Indianapolis has been a zone 8A winter, and that winter minimum temperature that year(winter of 2011-2012) logged an extreme winter low temperature of 11F
2012 made it down to 2 here. The warmest ever was in 1937 when it only got down to 12, the only 8A year on record. 1932 had the second warmest minimum, at 8 in March.
Quote:
I wonder how often Oklahoma City has a colder winter minimum temperature than Rochester.
Hasn't happened since at least 2000. Years that it has happened: 1902, 1905, 1911, 1916, 1930, 1932, 1937, 1947, 1949, 1959, 1983 and 1989. Just a quick search so I probably missed a few. About 1 in 10 years it seems.
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, so Indianapolis appears also likely to have a 6B winter this season(that is barring any late season cold snaps, which appear highly unlikely right now), I wonder how often Oklahoma City logs a colder minimum low temperature than Indianapolis
?
