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A warm pdo favors a more positive phase of the pna which enhances troughing in the east. Also it keeps the vortex away from Alaska and over the Hudson bay. Especially when phased with a positive phase of enso, a warm pdo is a cold signal for the east in winter overall. Also a much wetter signal for us. A cold pdo when phased with a cold signal of enso will mean much warmer, drier weather in the east coast.
I think part of Tom's problem is he associates the patterns that affect us with the Midwest not considering we are 2 different regions so things vary.
A warm pdo favors a more positive phase of the pna which enhances troughing in the east. Also it keeps the vortex away from Alaska and over the Hudson bay. Especially when phased with a positive phase of enso, a warm pdo is a cold signal for the east in winter overall. Also a much wetter signal for us. A cold pdo when phased with a cold signal of enso will mean much warmer, drier weather in the east coast.
I think part of Tom's problem is he associates the patterns that affect us with the Midwest not considering we are 2 different regions so things vary.
When long range forecasts say "East" they mean all of us Midwest and East Coast.
I meant to say in the summer, sorry, but I think ypu knew what I meant, especially after I quoted JB
but now that you mentioned it, last winter was a +PDO and we all know what Godzilla did.
George, is there any way to correlate 500mb heights in Jan and Feb to surface temps?
His maps have the 5500 height line over Philly in Jan and Feb. Any idea what surface temp that would indicate?
Last edited by tom77falcons; 08-08-2016 at 03:38 PM..
George, is there any way to correlate 500mb heights in Jan and Feb to surface temps?
His maps have the 5500 height line over Philly in Jan and Feb. Any idea what surface temp that would indicate?
Yes, there is a correlation and the 500mb Heights is always used to see the pattern and surface temps. It's what forecasters use.. It's something me and others have always been posting for years. We just don't get too technical on this forum.
Just remember the 540 line is typically the Rain/Snow line. But don't just look at the height number, follow the flow and the countour lines, see the pattern. Is it a trough, Ridge, Zonal?
If it shows 550 in Middle of winter, that's not a cold pattern. I forget the exact math to figure it out but it's basically the average air temperature in the vertical column of air between the ground surface and the 500 mb height (18,000')
So 550 would be seasonable but remember what you're looking at. Is it a day, a week or a monthly average of the heights. HUGE differences. Monthly average means you could be missing the Arctic blasts or Heat Surges
Is it true??? No possible way, could it be?daily
PDO values yesterday were negative. Only problem is Alaska, cool that water if we need a true strong -PDO.
Is it true??? No possible way, could it be?daily
PDO values yesterday were negative. Only problem is Alaska, cool that water if we need a true strong -PDO.
Dailies really don't mean much but keep an eye on it for continuation.. The monthly is still very positive however it has been dropping since March...I am waiting for the July update to come out.
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