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National Weather Service New York NY
840 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017
Region remains in tropical airmass overnight with warm and
humid conditions. Indications of bands of low stratus advecting
north into E LI/SE CT from the ocean this evening. Areas of fog
likely with this...which could be locally dense.
Elsewhere...patchy fog development possible.
No discernible focus or trigger for convection...but an
isolated shower...possibly a thunderstorm possible in tropical
environment.
Lows tonight were taken from a blend of MAV/MET with some manual
slight adjustments, ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s.
A high risk of rip current development is expected for Atlantic
beaches into this evening due to persistent SE Swells.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level longwave trough will approach from the west Monday.
The right rear quad of the upper level jet moves in Monday night.
There is SW flow through the atmosphere. The parallel nature of the
height fields portends that convective cells will train during the
day. This will essentially have multicell convection developing and
moving across the region. Some locations will have multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms. Bulk shear from 0-6km increases during
the day to around 30-40 kt and maximizes at night to near 45-65kt.
Surface CAPE is highest across NYC and to the north and west with
values near to just above 2000 J/kg.
The largest height falls aloft and higher jet stream speeds enter
the region from northwest to southeast Monday night. While surface
CAPE decreases, enough instability aloft will remain as diagnosed
from negative Showalter Indices, possibly dropping to near -2. This
would result in convection maintaining itself across Long Island and
Southern Connecticut.
PW values increases further with the SW flow through the vertical
atmospheric column, reaching near 2.2 inches by late afternoon and
evening hours Monday
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,594,858 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident
Looks like the max today will be 112 F for Phoenix, which is actually 2 degrees lower than forecast. I'm starting to doubt the 120 F forecast threats for Tuesday. 116 F/117 F is more likely. What are the daily records at?
They backed tomorrow off to 117°F, Tuesday to 119°F, Wednesday to 118°F. Record high tomorrow is 118°F and Tuesdays is 116°F, Wednesdays is 115°F
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,594,858 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadgerFilms
Holy Hell! 120/90? I don't EVER wanna hear anyone try to pull that dry heat crap lol. A low of 90? Dry or humid, it doesn't matter, I'd rather have a humid day with a low in the 70s even 80s than that.
I've experienced both, as I have been to Texas and Florida in July, and the dry 90 IS better than the humid 75-85
I've experienced both, as I have been to Texas and Florida in July, and the dry 90 IS better than the humid 75-85
And the dry 120? I don't see how a dry 120 is much better than a humid 95. At least the humid 95 doesn't cook you like a lobster! Also, you can't even support lush vegetation in the desert, which is another reason I'd pick humidity.
I know humidity sucks but come on y'all, lets not act like 120 degrees in dry baking sun is nice either. If we're talking about the SAME temperatures (80s and 90s) and dry, then you got a point, but low 80s and 70s humid or not, are far more tolerable than way up in the hunneds!
I did use to live in West Texas where its much drier than here, and the summers were just as hot temp wise but much less humid and muggy and yes, it felt better. Hell, just a few weeks ago I went down to Ballinger and you could certainly feel the change in the air. It was up in the 90s but felt soooo much nicer than here in Denton. But West Texas as hot as it gets, is still cooler than Phoenix. West Texas summers beat both Phoenix and North Texas' in terms of comfort. Hot, dryish, but not scorching.
cooled off to the low 70s on Long Island and now hanging there. Might rain overnight. what's showalter? Humid airmass means severe weather likely on the higher summits of the Whites
A cold front will continue to slowly make its way towards the summits tomorrow, and increase chances for rain showers and thunderstorms in the area on Monday.Due to the very moist air mass in place, combined with extremely unstable conditions, any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow have a high likelihood of reaching severe levels, with large hail, high winds, very heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning all likely. The front will continue to move even slower into early tomorrow night, allowing for prolonged periods of rainfall and thunderstorms, with temperatures then dropping into the upper 40s.
And the dry 120? I don't see how a dry 120 is much better than a humid 95. At least the humid 95 doesn't cook you like a lobster! Also, you can't even support lush vegetation in the desert, which is another reason I'd pick humidity.
I have experienced 117 and very dry and 95 and humid. Both were too hot, but the dry 117 was better than the humid 95. While it was very hot, it did not feel too bad just to walk around in but walking around for just 10 minutes in humid high 90s was miserable and I was already sweating. Many people probably prefer a cooler, humid temperatures but having experienced both, I will stand by my opinion that hot and dry is better for me.
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