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Looks wet, trough in the upper Plains and a dipping jet stream. Also looks scary for winter as that cold sinks south if it doesn't change....
Cold always sink south in winter, even mild winters. There will always be arctic fronts going into the deep South in winter. Just a matter of how cold they are and how moderated it is by the time it gets there. That will never change.
Cold always sink south in winter, even mild winters. There will always be arctic fronts going into the deep South in winter. Just a matter of how cold they are and how moderated it is by the time it gets there. That will never change.
Oh lord please no. Not this again. The blob screws everything east of the Rokcies
It is quite possible we are in a longterm pattern where that thing sticks around for a decade or so. Seems very very persistent. It gets knocked back by a super strong Nino and Nina and then here it comes right back again. Not good for us at all.
Some have speculated it is caused by global climate change (warming). Could be possible. Don't remember anything like it for years before 2014.
"A new paper published in Nature Geoscience reconstructs climate and solar activity over the past 1000 years and finds tiny changes in solar activity “have a considerable impact on the ocean-atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic, with potential effects on regional climate.” The authors find low solar activity, such as we are currently experiencing, is associated with an increase in winter jet stream blockings, which is the source of jet stream/polar vortex dips and record cold 2014 winter experienced in the US."
The solar cycle is like a pendulum, swinging back and forth between periods of high and low sunspot number every 11 years. These data from NOAA show that the pendulum is swinging toward low sunspot numbers even faster than expected. (The red line is the forecast; black dots are actual measurements.). Given the current progression, forecasters expect the cycle to bottom out with a deep Solar Minimum in 2019-2020.
Solar Minimum is widely misunderstood. Many people think it brings a period of dull quiet. In fact, space weather changes in interesting ways. For instance, as the extreme ultraviolet output of the sun decreases, the upper atmosphere of Earth cools and collapses. This allows space junk to accumulate around our planet. Also, the heliosphere shrinks, bringing interstellar space closer to Earth; galactic cosmic rays penetrate the inner solar system and our atmosphere with relative ease. (More on this below.) Meanwhile, geomagnetic storms and auroras will continue–caused mainly by solar wind streams instead of CMEs. Indeed, Solar Minimum is coming, but it won’t be dull.
Seem to be so many conflicting forecasts for summer this year. The posts right above this one show nothing but heat for us.
Yes part of the reason is the unknown progression of El Nino. Generally speaking, slow onset means warmer summer and fast means cooler. Not always the case though. Also it has been so wet this spring. Oh and where that Bermuda High positions itself.
I'm pretty much betting on a washout this summer. Low 80s and lots of rain.. Florida here I come.
Would you be unhappy with a completely average summer that saw very close to average temps, but no heat waves?
I would. There is nothing really pleasant about heat waves same as really cold arctic cold waves in winter. I see no benefit to them.
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