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National Weather Service New York NY
642 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017
Sunny and "MILD" - at least relatively so.
Some thin cirrus - but "basically" sunny. Temps top out at or near 60 most areas with a breezy SSW flow. Last 60 degree day of the year?? Probably not.
Had some unexpected rain today. I ended up with about 0.40" in my gauge. The airport recorded 0.22".
Also, the temperature ended up well below what was forecast. It never got above 58F (14.4C) today, and I think at least 68F (20C) had been forecast.
Forecast to reach freezing tomorrow night.
Quote:
.DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate showers with an isolated thunderstorm or two
continues across many locations this afternoon as strong
shortwave continues to move into the base of long wave trof across
the central US. A weak coastal surface trof is also noted in the
surface analysis this afternoon. The clouds and showers have kept
temperatures from increasing much this afternoon. The cold front
is still situated well to the north of the area but is rapidly
moving to the south.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move east
across the area remainder of this afternoon and into south central
louisiana late this afternoon and evening. A brief break in the
activity is possible this afternoon and early evening across
southeast Texas and western Louisiana. But guidance is insisting
on additional activity developing with the front.
Once the front passes, shower activity will come to an end with
temperatures cooling down once again with freezing conditions
likely across much of central Louisiana Thursday morning.
Temperatures will begin to moderate Friday and into the weekend
with dry conditions.
Had some unexpected rain today. I ended up with about 0.40" in my gauge. The airport recorded 0.22".
Also, the temperature ended up well below what was forecast. It never got above 58F (14.4C) today, and I think at least 68F (20C) had been forecast.
Forecast to reach freezing tomorrow night.
Since you been dropping to freezing don't forget to remove the inner tube and funnel. They will crack as its not made as thick as the outer tube. You can put them back once you're above freezing. And don't forget to remove them when you get snow of course..
Rain just started here.. we have northern and southern Jet stream phasing which is adding extra lift in the atmosphere which is providing rain as well as a storm off NC coast and Gulf and Atlantic moisture.
NWS NY reminding us of something this morning....
And I didn't know there was a weather model called CAM's.
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
555 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017
530 AM Update. Believe forecast is on track based on RADAR and
latest HRRR run! Area of moderate rain now moving out of
Maryland and Delaware reaches the NY Metro around 730 AM. 4/10"
so far at KISP - so also thinking QPF should work out as well.
The Jet Dynamics have resulted in the very rapid evolution of
the rain event for this morning with Cold FROPA resulting in a
rapid end from mid morning to mid afternoon (west to east). The
right rear jet entrance to the 120+ KT is the forcing. Rather complex, but interesting pattern.
High resolution CAM`s and HREF appear to have good handle on
the pattern/timing - uncertainty though lies in the QPF. Have
gone with around 1/4" for the City and 3/4" for the Twin Forks
of Suffolk County. 06Z NAM has gone back to 1.5" and is
consistent with the RAPx (Version 4). While the operational
RAP/HRRR time-lagged runs keep with what we`ve gone with.
Thank goodness it`s not February and we were dealing with snow! A nice case for zero to 12+" of uncertainty in the first few hours of the forecast.
Otherwise - skies clear and NW winds gust up to 25 mph by late
afternoon as CAA sets in.
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I ended up with about 0.40" in my gauge. The airport recorded 0.22". 
