Forget El Nino 2017-2018, models now pointing toward another La Nina (moving, West)

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Well of course he would wouldn't he. Can't dare call for an above avg winter to please his fossil fuel clients. He is useless.

Why wouldn't he if the analogs pointed to an above average winter?




But lets wait and see if we actually get a Modoki El Nino this autumn first...

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Why wouldn't he if the analogs pointed to an above average winter?




But lets wait and see if we actually get a Modoki El Nino this autumn first...

Modoki is his fav El Nino. God forbid it be east based as we know what that means for the East.

La Nina or El Nino is certainly only a part of what makes a winter in the US. This La Nina was supposed to be warm and dry in the SE and they had horrible cold and snow with damaged palms and citrus all over the place. So much for La Nina determining the winter as the QBO and MJO ruled the day. We just have way too many things going on with these two huge oceans on either side of us and low pressure systems crossing the continent all winter long.

We don't have a huge Canadian High that just sits there all winter protecting us like China. Instead we get 80f days in Feb and a low of 4F in Jan and on and on all winter long up and down. Drives me insane.

[LKJ1988]

I just want one like we had in 97-98 when i got 35" of rain in the winter. The last so called big 1 was a total flop in my area.

[rpvan]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Bastardi thinks we will have a Modoki El Nino by this fall and winter

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...17939443384321

Great, a repeat of this past winter.

[Cambium]

If you do a twitter search for "Bastardi and Modoki" look how many tweets of his come up. lolol You'll be scrolling down a lot. Fun to read though.


You can learn something from them all. I look to learn about a specific event or the science of it rather than read into a prediction

Kinda like "read between the lines"? Or think outside the box/tweet?

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by rpvan

Great, a repeat of this past winter.

They can't get winter right this far off. This forecast will surely change. They can't even get 15 days ahead right how can they get months away lol.

[chicagogeorge]

We are still in a weak La Nina and probably go into an ENSO neutral summer. Who knows beyond that point....

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

We are still in a weak La Nina and probably go into an ENSO neutral summer. Who knows beyond that point....

what does enso neutral summer mean for the eastern US?

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

what does enso neutral summer mean for the eastern US?

I think it means that other teleconnections would dominate the pattern. Right now the top analog years are as follows (issued on April 20th)

http://www.oregon.gov/oda/programs/n...dlongrange.pdf








We'll see how accurate this is...

[Cambium]

Finally a period when the Pacific isnt torching hot or easily achieved. La Nina could hold on now. Crap. Sucks for Summer conditions though.

https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/stat...80202482651141