Forget El Nino 2017-2018, models now pointing toward another La Nina (ice, warming)

[Isleofpalms85]

Originally Posted by ral31

I hope we don't get a repeat of last winter or 08-09 down here.

Don't worry, no winter season is ever a carbon copy of the previous winter, this means that no climate analog year for this coming winter will ever be 100% right. The jury really is out as to how this winter will turn out, even the weather for fall 2017 is mystery enough.

[TheRealDavid]

I don't care whether we get a mild or cold winter, I just want above average sunshine this winter. Last winter, we had a record cloudy January.

I'm hoping we get a lot more dry arctic air masses than the previous winter. It's going to be hard if it's a La Nina though.

[Thunder98]

Typical La Nina pattern in North America.

[chicagogeorge]

Very La Nina like state, but temp forecasts over eastern 2/3rds are not jiving (should be warmer than normal but they are showing cooler conditions for at least Sep)

[rpvan]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Very La Nina like state, but temp forecasts over eastern 2/3rds are not jiving (should be warmer than normal but they are showing cooler conditions for at least Sep)

I'm thinking it'll take until November before we start transitioning into a la Nina pattern considering basically all the models are forecasting a warm west for the next couple months at the least.

[chicagogeorge]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...15415743078400

[chicagogeorge]

Tell me this doesn't look like a building La Nina?

[Thunder98]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Tell me this doesn't look like a building La Nina?

Weak to Moderate La Nina this upcoming Fall and Winter?

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by Thunder98

Weak to Moderate La Nina this upcoming Fall and Winter?

At the moment it sure looks like it, but many things can change within the next 3 months....




As a side note, there also seems to be a -QBO regime setting up. These are analogs for -QBO and La Nina years



https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/sta...57912215916544

[jbgusa]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

At the moment it sure looks like it, but many things can change within the next 3 months....

Sure looks that way to me. And on a side note we should be in a long-term Cold Phase of the PDO. That favors La Niñas and makes interim El Niños shorter and less pervasive in their impact. So I'm not surprised that the El Niño failed.

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

As a side note, there also seems to be a -QBO regime setting up. These are analogs for -QBO and La Nina years



https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/sta...57912215916544

What are the analog years? Can't tell from the tweet.