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Old 09-15-2017, 03:04 PM
Status: "Will global warming make indianapolis the new death valley?" (set 8 days ago)
 
Location: 46060, Hardiness zone 5b/6a
2,175 posts, read 1,571,793 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Good point. Same can be said with the CFSv2. It more to look at the general trends though, and if there are model consensus.

I'm loving this winter's analog. 2007-08 was a great winter here.



The winter of 2007-2008 might have been a good winter that year, but the following summer was as lame as ****, at least the summer of 2008 was lackluster in terms of heatwaves in Indianapolis, I can't say what the summer of 2008 was like in your location though
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Old 09-15-2017, 05:55 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, BC
604 posts, read 225,162 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
↑ This!


That's what I was saying in the Fall thread... Recent years it seems like the Western U.S and northern Plains have benefited from early winter first as the Jet stream digs there, not the East.





Using the Japanese update, I wouldn't mind that. Even though its showing "reds" here, the dividing line is an indication where the Jet stream would be.


So get that Polar Jet stream (black line) to shift south more at times, with an active Sub tropical Jet (green) and we'll get some nice snows across the northern tier and into Northeast

I like the look of the jamstec. On the La Nina topic page I posted about how I think the suppressed jet pattern will show up again this winter for the west with big winter rains showing up in CA again. As you said, the pattern shown is probably ideal for some good snowstorms in the NE US.
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Old 09-16-2017, 06:10 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,007 posts, read 47,336,882 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
I like the look of the jamstec. On the La Nina topic page I posted about how I think the suppressed jet pattern will show up again this winter for the west with big winter rains showing up in CA again. As you said, the pattern shown is probably ideal for some good snowstorms in the NE US.
Or could also be a slop fest most of the time. Too close to the Jet is no good. #CementSnow #Potpourri




If it's anything like this, I think last year it was at one point where we had continuous moisture coming from the Pacific, and you get that Polar Jet suppressed.. It's lots of snow days with continued moisture falling into a cold enough airmass. Of course, not everyone will get it as the Jet moves, pattern shifts, and moisture location changes



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Old 09-16-2017, 07:01 AM
 
21,905 posts, read 11,576,742 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
The winter of 2007-2008 might have been a good winter that year, but the following summer was as lame as ****, at least the summer of 2008 was lackluster in terms of heatwaves in Indianapolis, I can't say what the summer of 2008 was like in your location though
True summer of 08 was very lame





Quote:
What Can the U.S. Expect From a La Niña Winter?

We've said many times an El Niño, La Niña*or the lack of either, known as the neutral phase, is only one large-scale forcing on the atmosphere. It is not the be-all and end-all determining whether a season is wet, dry, cold or warm.
Despite that, the peak atmospheric response to the equatorial Pacific anomalies tends to occur in the Northern Hemisphere's winter months.
During last winter's weak La Niña, the West and Upper Midwest had one of their wettest winters on record, while a large swath of the East, South and Midwest had one of their warmest winters.

Quote:
If we have a La Niña settle in by fall or winter, let's take a look at December-through-February U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies during weak (SST anomalies from 0.5 to 0.9 degrees below average), moderate (1.0 to 1.4 degrees below average) and strong (1.5 degrees below average or cooler) La Niñas prior to last winter's event.
Temperatures
While there are some differences among La Niña magnitudes, some commonalities emerge regarding La Niña winter forcing in the U.S.:
Cold:*Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, New England, New York state, West Coast
Warm:*Southern Plains, Southeast
Neglecting other factors, it appears the stronger the La Niña, the stronger the likelihood the winter warmth spreads farther north into the Corn Belt, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states.




Quote:
Precipitation
Again, despite some differences among La Niña magnitudes, some commonalities are apparent:
Wet:*Pacific Northwest, Bitterroots (western Montana/Idaho), parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley
Dry:*Southern Plains, Gulf/Southeast coast including Florida, Southern California, Desert Southwest


https://weather.com/news/climate/new...september-2017
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:15 AM
 
21,905 posts, read 11,576,742 times
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oh **** not again

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Old 09-17-2017, 08:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
65,007 posts, read 47,336,882 times
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Sad but true. I'm in the yellow. Longest stretch of snow cover only 20-45 consecutive days.

Hmmm this is off actually for here. Feb-March 2015 was 2nd most with over 45 days. 2011 Bridgeport had 58 in a row. Hartford had 82 in 1994. Is he not including March maybe?

Actually... nevermind "median". Yeah, looks right its the average.

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Old 09-17-2017, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
5,842 posts, read 2,468,978 times
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So statistically 0 in Raleigh? Wow.
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:44 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
5,842 posts, read 2,468,978 times
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NASA looks great george!
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Old 09-17-2017, 10:47 AM
 
Location: Tucson, AZ
5,204 posts, read 2,319,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
So statistically 0 in Raleigh? Wow.
It's wrong...

Average number of days with snowcover in Raleigh is between 4 and 5 according to Nowdata. The longest consecutive stretch on average then is likely 2-3 days.
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Old 09-17-2017, 10:52 AM
 
Location: New Jersey
15,044 posts, read 13,106,118 times
Reputation: 6419
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Sad but true. I'm in the yellow. Longest stretch of snow cover only 20-45 consecutive days.

Hmmm this is off actually for here. Feb-March 2015 was 2nd most with over 45 days. 2011 Bridgeport had 58 in a row. Hartford had 82 in 1994. Is he not including March maybe?

Actually... nevermind "median". Yeah, looks right its the average.

Just shows how on the line we are between solid winters and weak winters. As I always say, I feel like our winters are often Washington DC-esq aka lame.

I can go for a front loaded winter. We're overdue for that. Memorable recent October/November snowfalls include November 2014, November 2012, October 2011, and October 2009. I thought there was snow in October 2010, but I guess not. Couldn't find data on a late October 2008 snowfall, but here's an article:

Season's First Snow Storm Hits New York, New Jersey | Fox News

Edit: Here's a source. I keep forgetting about this website http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim...0809snowtotals
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