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View Poll Results: When will El Nino be present?
Before September 2018 2 6.67%
Between September 1- October 31, 2018 6 20.00%
After November 1st 13 43.33%
Spring 2019 9 30.00%
Voters: 30. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-22-2018, 08:20 AM
 
12,942 posts, read 8,816,680 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Can't buy what?


Having any kind of wet winter for my area. Already it is nothing like the fall of 97 was with all the heavy rain and weather we had.

Got tore up good in Oct of 97 and had 17" of Rain in Dec of 97. Time after time the west gulf is loaded with rain and it gets within 200 miles of us it goes POOF as that high is stuck to our east and hits that dry air aloft. We just can't get lift with that high stuck in place. No lift no rain and it is that simple.
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Old 11-22-2018, 11:12 AM
Status: "Welcome to indianarctica" (set 10 days ago)
 
Location: Part time dual resident of 76131 and 46060
2,474 posts, read 1,741,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Having any kind of wet winter for my area. Already it is nothing like the fall of 97 was with all the heavy rain and weather we had.

Got tore up good in Oct of 97 and had 17" of Rain in Dec of 97. Time after time the west gulf is loaded with rain and it gets within 200 miles of us it goes POOF as that high is stuck to our east and hits that dry air aloft. We just can't get lift with that high stuck in place. No lift no rain and it is that simple.
The El Nio of 1997/1998 was a much stronger event than this years Nio event, and is a modoki style event whereas the 97 event was an east based super Nio, so with those facts in mind I dont expect this winter to be anything like the winter of 1997/1998.
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Old 11-22-2018, 01:13 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
The El Nio of 1997/1998 was a much stronger event than this years Nio event, and is a modoki style event whereas the 97’ event was an east based super Nio, so with those facts in mind I don’t expect this winter to be anything like the winter of 1997/1998.
I will never see another 97-98 in my lifetime. And the last so called super El Nino was a total dud for my area.
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Old 11-27-2018, 06:43 PM
 
22,699 posts, read 12,248,104 times
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Wait so El Nino already peaking??

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Old 01-11-2019, 02:05 PM
 
Location: Edmonton, Canada
1,953 posts, read 1,015,682 times
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Although the Pacific Ocean tried in November to create an El Nino the atmosphere didn't play ball. Now ocean temperatures have returned to El Nino neutral conditions. Nevertheless both the Australian BOM and the US NOAA think an El Nino first half of 2019 is likely.

ENSO Outlook: an alert system for the El Nio Southern Oscillation
Quote:
The ENSO Outlook continues at El Nio ALERT.

Despite temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean exceeding El Nio thresholds in late 2018, atmospheric indicators have shown no consistent El Nio signal. This suggests that the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean have not coupled, a process that would sustain an El Nio, and result in widespread global impacts. In recent weeks, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have returned to neutral values, although remain above average.
El Nio - Climate Prediction Center - NOAA
Quote:
Synopsis: El Nio is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~65% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. In the last couple of weeks, all four Nio indices decreased, with the latest weekly values at +0.2C in the Nio-1+2 region and near +0.7C in the other regions [Fig. 2]. ... Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.




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Old 01-12-2019, 06:23 AM
 
Location: New York Area
14,542 posts, read 5,755,468 times
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The sensible weather patterns on the East Coast are following Nio script; cold November, even snow in NYC, warmup in December/early January and now cold, with storms staying south. Also very rainy last year.
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Old 01-12-2019, 08:35 AM
 
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This El Nino was a flop like i called for it to be months ago. No rain at all in my area and none coming for God knows how long.
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Old 01-17-2019, 10:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
67,755 posts, read 49,654,937 times
Reputation: 10947
No Nino?

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Old 02-17-2019, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Southern Ontario
281 posts, read 101,060 times
Reputation: 157


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Old 02-17-2019, 05:52 PM
 
22,699 posts, read 12,248,104 times
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Weak El Nino will stick around unit the at least the beginning of the summer


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