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View Poll Results: When will El Nino be present?
Before September 2018 2 8.70%
Between September 1- October 31, 2018 5 21.74%
After November 1st 10 43.48%
Spring 2019 6 26.09%
Voters: 23. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-13-2018, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Typically ENSO neutral summers heading into El Nino aren't anything special for the Midwest. But there is a giant drought area in the Plains and Southwest that could feed bouts of heat for the Midwest/Great Lakes. We are going to have some heat this weekend
My 10 day has a multiple days that might possibly break 100... yowza. Bring the heat... december through februrary lol.
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Old 06-14-2018, 07:48 PM
 
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Old 07-18-2018, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Both have their advantages and disadvantages for winter. I have to look at some numbers again to see how many Nino winters were snowy

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Old 07-18-2018, 08:37 PM
 
Location: IN
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Both have their advantages and disadvantages for winter. I have to look at some numbers again to see how many Nino winters were snowy

Only significant impacts for the US if it is a stronger episode. Weak to moderate ENSO events can have divergent impacts on US winter weather.
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Old 07-19-2018, 04:38 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Only significant impacts for the US if it is a stronger episode. Weak to moderate ENSO events can have divergent impacts on US winter weather.
And if there's a weak Nina it will have different effects verse a weak Nino.


I'll have to do new graphs.. this one is from 2012. I believe there was a couple more weak Ninas after that. I'll have to do weak Nino since we're expecting El Nino this winter.


But check it out... Boston's Snowfall Avg is 43.6". Only 3 times was well above normal during Weak La Ninas.
Burlington does well.
NYC every year below normal except 3.




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Old 07-19-2018, 04:51 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Ahhh, found this in my file.. From 2015 so not long ago.


Syracuse, Minneapolis and Fargo have below normal snowfall when averaging all these El Nino strengths.

Raleigh does well with Strong El Ninos. Their normal is 6.1" and with Strong El Ninos they average 9.0" (1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83 had 11"+)


Hartford does best with Moderate El Ninos. Out of the 6 Moderate Nino years only 1 had less than 30" that season. 2002-03 had 74"

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Old 07-19-2018, 05:12 AM
 
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Summer 2018 will not see an El Nino. More likely later in the fall...


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Old 07-19-2018, 06:29 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Ahhh, found this in my file.. From 2015 so not long ago.


Syracuse, Minneapolis and Fargo have below normal snowfall when averaging all these El Nino strengths.

Raleigh does well with Strong El Ninos. Their normal is 6.1" and with Strong El Ninos they average 9.0" (1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83 had 11"+)


Hartford does best with Moderate El Ninos. Out of the 6 Moderate Nino years only 1 had less than 30" that season. 2002-03 had 74"
Interesting stat! Im surprised because weak el ninos are always the coldest winters. Strong el ninos tend to be milder. I would have thought weak el ninos brought the most snow.
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Old 07-19-2018, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Summer 2018 will not see an El Nino. More likely later in the fall...


The summer is taking on a nino like pattern i presume though? Certainly seems so here. Wonder what nino falls look like.
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Old 07-19-2018, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12 View Post
Interesting stat! Im surprised because weak el ninos are always the coldest winters. Strong el ninos tend to be milder. I would have thought weak el ninos brought the most snow.
Maybe with Weak Ninos the storm tracks stay further south so gives you the colder air but not the moisture? I guess sometimes you need that Jet nearby to bring those big storms but means quicker to warm up?

Weak El Nino Years and snowfall totals for Raleigh. Some big ones in there. but the Avg is less than the few Strong Nino yrs.

1951-52: 4.7"
1952-53: Trace
1953-54: 7.1"
1958-59: 13.5"
1968-69: 12.0"
1969-70: 2.0"
1976-77: 3.6"
1977-78: 10.6"
1979-80: 18.3"
1994-95: 2.2"
2004-05: 0.9"
2006-07: 1.6"

Average: 6.38"
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