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View Poll Results: When will El Nino be present?
Before September 2018 2 8.33%
Between September 1- October 31, 2018 5 20.83%
After November 1st 11 45.83%
Spring 2019 6 25.00%
Voters: 24. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-14-2018, 04:35 PM
Status: "I hate cool and cold weather" (set 8 days ago)
 
Location: 46060, Hardiness zone 5b/6a
2,219 posts, read 1,597,000 times
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The winter of 2018-2019 probably will be so harsh that Hell will freeze over.
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Old 08-14-2018, 05:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
The winter of 2018-2019 probably will be so harsh that Hell will freeze over.
I hope it is like 2010 for me.
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Old 08-15-2018, 06:48 PM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
12,999 posts, read 17,193,349 times
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I wouldn't mind a 2009-2010 redux. The fall of 2009 was very wet, but that's just because the rainy days had very heavy rain instead of light showers. There were still plenty of warm days with dry air and sunny skies that fall. The maximum temperatures by month were 90F in September, 85F in October, and 76F in November. Overall, average monthly temperatures were near normal in September, below normal in October, and above normal in November, but then came a severe weather episode in early December that signaled a change in the pattern with the changing of the season. The winter of 2009-2010 was cold and snowy, with average monthly temperatures much below normal in December, January and February.
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Old 08-15-2018, 11:25 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, BC
609 posts, read 229,538 times
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2009-10 was so warm out west that we had to truck in snow from the interior for the winter olympics.
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Old 08-16-2018, 05:01 AM
 
22,005 posts, read 11,674,551 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
The winter of 2018-2019 probably will be so harsh that Hell will freeze over.
Current SST configuration would definitely support a colder snowy winter for the eastern two thirds. Weak Modoki El Nino, the Warm Blob in the North Pacific. Remember 2014? I think the Warm Blob was more pronounced that winter, but we'll see if this year it's impact is similar.


Yes 2010 was a Modoki El Nino year. Here is a blend of analog years with Modoki


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Old 08-16-2018, 12:19 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, BC
609 posts, read 229,538 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post

Yes 2010 was a Modoki El Nino year. Here is a blend of analog years with Modoki

I'll take the 68-69 analog! Second coldest winter since records began in 1937.
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Old 08-16-2018, 06:56 PM
 
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Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
I'll take the 68-69 analog! Second coldest winter since records began in 1937.
There are a number of years in those analogs that would make a cold/snow lover happy here too.


Jamstec will be updating soon, but the July prediction was for a cold winter in the US. Both the Euro and Canadian are on board too. Up until now the Cfsv2 was the outlier showing a blowtorch, but is starting to change its tune


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Old 08-17-2018, 07:47 AM
 
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Old 08-17-2018, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Western US
460 posts, read 109,629 times
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Hopefully an El Nino does form. It would strengthen our chances of above-normal winter precipitation here in the southwestern US. A healthy snowpack will really help improve drought conditions. While we've had a pretty decent summer this year, the winter precipitation is what matters most when it comes to keeping drought conditions at bay.
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Old 08-18-2018, 09:24 PM
 
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