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Typically ENSO neutral summers heading into El Nino aren't anything special for the Midwest. But there is a giant drought area in the Plains and Southwest that could feed bouts of heat for the Midwest/Great Lakes. We are going to have some heat this weekend
My 10 day has a multiple days that might possibly break 100... yowza. Bring the heat... december through februrary lol.
Only significant impacts for the US if it is a stronger episode. Weak to moderate ENSO events can have divergent impacts on US winter weather.
And if there's a weak Nina it will have different effects verse a weak Nino.
I'll have to do new graphs.. this one is from 2012. I believe there was a couple more weak Ninas after that. I'll have to do weak Nino since we're expecting El Nino this winter.
But check it out... Boston's Snowfall Avg is 43.6". Only 3 times was well above normal during Weak La Ninas.
Burlington does well.
NYC every year below normal except 3.
Ahhh, found this in my file.. From 2015 so not long ago.
Syracuse, Minneapolis and Fargo have below normal snowfall when averaging all these El Nino strengths.
Raleigh does well with Strong El Ninos. Their normal is 6.1" and with Strong El Ninos they average 9.0" (1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83 had 11"+)
Hartford does best with Moderate El Ninos. Out of the 6 Moderate Nino years only 1 had less than 30" that season. 2002-03 had 74"
Interesting stat! Im surprised because weak el ninos are always the coldest winters. Strong el ninos tend to be milder. I would have thought weak el ninos brought the most snow.
Interesting stat! Im surprised because weak el ninos are always the coldest winters. Strong el ninos tend to be milder. I would have thought weak el ninos brought the most snow.
Maybe with Weak Ninos the storm tracks stay further south so gives you the colder air but not the moisture? I guess sometimes you need that Jet nearby to bring those big storms but means quicker to warm up?
Weak El Nino Years and snowfall totals for Raleigh. Some big ones in there. but the Avg is less than the few Strong Nino yrs.
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