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Old 02-08-2019, 07:44 PM
 
Location: Southern Ontario
250 posts, read 92,108 times
Reputation: 157

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Calling it, spring and summer is going to suck! Did a quick sweep of LR models and looked at years with similar ENSO and it ain't pretty. It's going to be cool and wet for some part of the middle of the continent. With my luck, the cool anomalies will be centred right over me Hoping that global warming will be here to save the day.

I'd be more than happy to eat my words.
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Old 02-08-2019, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Part time dual resident of 76131 and 46060
2,420 posts, read 1,706,836 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealDavid View Post
Calling it, spring and summer is going to suck! Did a quick sweep of LR models and looked at years with similar ENSO and it ain't pretty. It's going to be cool and wet for some part of the middle of the continent. With my luck, the cool anomalies will be centred right over me Hoping that global warming will be here to save the day.

I'd be more than happy to eat my words.
Pick your poison, either excessive rains and below average temperatures or record drought and dustbowlification........at least a wet summer guarantees a green lush landscape.
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Old 02-08-2019, 08:32 PM
 
Location: Southern Ontario
250 posts, read 92,108 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
Pick your poison, either excessive rains and below average temperatures or record drought and dustbowlification........at least a wet summer guarantees a green lush landscape.
Only if it's a hot and humid summer. But between a dust bowl esque summer and a cool wet summer, I'd take the former
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Old 02-09-2019, 07:41 AM
 
22,534 posts, read 12,115,675 times
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Well according to the latest CFSv2 March is supposed to be above normal out west, in the Upper Midwest here and the Northeast







If Modoki El Nino years. So this spring/summer analogs might be 1958, 1964, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 1992, 1995, 2003, 2005





This is a blend of all those years show up in the analogs as a cool spring



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Old 02-09-2019, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Southern Ontario
250 posts, read 92,108 times
Reputation: 157
^^^
Yup with the deep blues shifting west into the middle of the continent as the warm season goes on.

At this point it looks like I’m going to be taking a looong break from following the weather in a few weeks. Again, I’m hoping I’ll be eating my words.
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Old 02-09-2019, 12:46 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,184 posts, read 9,918,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheRealDavid View Post
Only if it's a hot and humid summer. But between a dust bowl esque summer and a cool wet summer, I'd take the former



do you ever really get hot and humid conditions to last in Ontario in summer? Toronto averages in summer aren't really impressive as far as dew point and high temps.
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Old 02-09-2019, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Part time dual resident of 76131 and 46060
2,420 posts, read 1,706,836 times
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^^^^^^^^^


Temperatures and dew points during summer are only unimpressive in Toronto when compared to Subtropical Philadelphia and other places with Subtropical climates.
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Old 02-09-2019, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
67,360 posts, read 49,213,020 times
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March temp departures last 6 years.

5 of the last 6 has been below normal in the Northeast with Northern New England and Mid Atlantic the exception.

I wouldn't mind a normal March now.

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Old 02-09-2019, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Part time dual resident of 76131 and 46060
2,420 posts, read 1,706,836 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
March temp departures last 6 years.

5 of the last 6 has been below normal in the Northeast with Northern New England and Mid Atlantic the exception.

I wouldn't mind a normal March now.
It looks like the Midwest and Northeast has paid dearly for the record warmth experienced in March of 2012, I am hoping for a warmer March this year but my gut feeling tells me that parts of the Midwest and Northeastern United States will be jipped out of a proper spring like March yet again this yearstill I am hoping for a warmer March than what happened in 2018
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Old 02-09-2019, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Winterpeg
6,661 posts, read 5,558,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
do you ever really get hot and humid conditions to last in Ontario in summer? Toronto averages in summer aren't really impressive as far as dew point and high temps.
Looks like they do get some humidity though.

20C+ dewpoint days in July and August 2018 according to wunderground:


TOR 18 PHIL 19

TOR 23 PHIL 27
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