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According to the IPCC RCP 8.5 model, which corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway, In 2100 the 3.8± 0.8 C (2.5,5.0) global warming relative to 1986–2005
wouldnt be homogeneous, depending on the continentality, the latitude and the season. The northern hemisphere, more continental would warm up faster. Also we see:
- larger warming over land compared to coastal location
- amplified Arctic mean warming for 67.5°N to 90°N exceeding the global average by a factor of more than 4 ( up to +12c ) where The warming is smallest in summer when excess heat at the Arctic surface goes into melting ice or is absorbed by the ocean
- more extended warming during winter (i.e., December-January-February on the Northern Hemisphere and June-July-August on the Southern Hemisphere) and the transition seasons than in summer, particularly at higher latitudes (> 67°)
- more extended warming during summer (i.e., June-July-August on the Northern Hemisphere and December-January-February on the Southern Hemisphere) and the transition seasons than in summer, particularly at Mid and Tropical latitudes ( Europa, N America, some Part of Asia/South America/Africa Australia)
- Lower equatorial latitudes with less seasonal variability would see less variability in mean temperature change(+3/+4.5 year round)
- Also another study states globally the changes in cool and warm days (TX) would likely appear to be somewhat smaller compared to the cool and warm night frequency changes (TN)
As for precipitations:
- The largest percentage changes are at the high latitudes again (increased precipitation is likely in the winter and spring poleward of 50°N.
- In the tropics, precipitation changes exhibit strong regional contrasts, with increased precipitation over the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and decreases over much of the subtropical ocean.
- Decreased precipitation in Europe, United States (in summer) and year round in Mediterranean regions Central America, Brazil, South Africa and Australia where substantial drought are projected
you will find attached projections for some cities, and you, what would the climate in your city look like?
I'll take Chicago as it's winters will still offer opportunities for snow, and the summers would resemble what Houston has right now.
But I don't believe for a second that this will ever happen. At least not within the next 80 years
Yeah, these alarmist "projections" have been around for a while, and they keep getting later and later. Back in the early 90s it used to be by 2020. Then 2050. Then 2080. And now 2100. I believe the climate is changing, and that things are getting warmer, but common now! A 1*C warm up does not mean Chicago will see regular 100*F days in the summer, or that snow will be a thing of the past.
I'll take Chicago as it's winters will still offer opportunities for snow, and the summers would resemble what Houston has right now.
But I don't believe for a second that this will ever happen. At least not within the next 80 years
Yeah, I don’t believe it either, I think that Chicago would have a better chance of resembling the climate of semi arid Denver Colorado more than it would ever have of becoming like the humid subtropical Southern United States
Yeah the RCP 4.5 scenario is more realistic IMO.
3-4C increase in winter, 2-3C in summer for the Great Lakes. Assuming the same increase for both highs and lows, Toronto would see 3C highs in January and 30C highs in July. For Chicago 4C in January, 32C in July
Yeah the RCP 4.5 scenario is more realistic IMO.
3-4C increase in winter, 2-3C in summer for the Great Lakes. Assuming the same increase for both highs and lows, Toronto would see 3C highs in January and 30C highs in July. For Chicago 4C in January, 32C in July
This seems intuitively reasonable to me. Chicago would be like St. Louis and Toronto would be like Columbus. The RCP 8.5 seems like an extreme worst-case scenario. Anyways, I hope the actual warming is as minimal as possible.
For the poll, I'll choose NYC although none of the options are very good. I'd prefer a slightly milder version of 2080-2099 NYC.
If the scenario actually does come true, I wonder how the Persian Gulf would be able to cope with its summers. 35 C dew point has already been recorded and 37+ C dew points are deadly. Bangkok would have a really oppressive climate as well.
for equatorial locations like bangkok even adding 2C to the actual mean temperatures, nothing good is predicted anddeadly heatwaves are something likely
with a population that is still growing in africa, south america, the stabilization of emissions and then a decline seems unlikely. Although RCP8.5 is the worst. can be something between RCP6 and RCP8
Last edited by nightstalker88; 11-25-2018 at 07:09 AM..
for equatorial locations like bangkok even adding 2C to the actual mean temperatures, nothing good is predicted anddeadly heatwaves are something likely
with a population that is still growing in africa, south america, the stabilization of emissions and then a decline seems unlikely. Although RCP8.5 is the worst. can be something between RCP6 and RCP8
The best way for developing countries to reduce CO2 emissions would be to transfer to renewable energy directly. The model used to have emissions peaking in a late developing phase and then declining due to new technology, but developing countries with very low energy use should start renewable energy immediately. Overall, I think RCP 6 is plausible.
The Middle East and some tropical areas will likely have deadly heatwaves. For example, Dubai may have midsummer highs of ~44 C which would be dangerous with its humidity. Heat waves could easily reach ~50 C.
The Tutiempo averages for Adaban do show a growing trend, and the averages are also quite a bit higher than 1951-2010 normals on Wikipedia.
FL will just be a very dry and humid place in another 30 to 100 years with more freak heavy rain events and months of dry weather. Huge change already in the last 40 years since i started keeping records. The 7 years have been off the charts.
Like I said, there is no way that Chicago's summers and winters will see temperature increases of 3-4C within the next 70 years. Not that this may not happen at some point in the distant future, but that quickly???
Also, none of these RCP scenarios factor in carbon from melting permafrost. I wonder what those projections would look like from the 2090s then?
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