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Speaking of NWS forecaster. Their name is always at the bottom.. This write up is from initials CMS at NWS Philly office.
"To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling"... go to the forecast discussion and learn the whole story! Great stuff as always!
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
611 PM EST Wed Dec 5 2018
For Friday, high pressure moves in from the west and is positioned
generally poleward of a strong southern-stream system developing in
the south-central plains. By 00z Sunday, the developing surface low
should be in the vicinity of the northern Gulf Coast. The 12z ECMWF
and GFS keep this system well to the south of the region as it
progresses off the coast Sunday night. To be blunt, I am not buying
what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in
precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the
strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble
guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of
the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the
interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the
vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1)
force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models
tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to
develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern-
stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented
from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early
next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough,
suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important
feature.
With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and
large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases
of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often
are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern-
stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending
tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of
noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent
with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in
our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread
PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases
exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so
far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of
medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture.
This would surely set all kinds of records if it happened.
I would bet against it at the moment. Isn’t that a new model?
I think it's meant to replace the GFS next year or something. I would obviously bet against it too but to see that outcome even as a possibility, however remote, is insane.
Usually in the south we are missing ingredients for a good snow...but moisture will not be a problem with this one...2+" liquid moisture pushing those snow/sleet values high in models...now where will the cold air setup and for how long and in what layers of the atmosphere is the question. And soil temps here in Upstate SC are in upper 40's degree F which is warm-ish for snow but heavy enough precip rates will easily overcome that.
(Amount of moisture if fell as all rain):
Evening run of the Euro (trying 4 times a day updates in lieu of current 2, ryan Maue apparently has access), 18z run showing heavy snow Sun (simulated radar image 7am Sun) SW NC and Upstate SC: https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1070483217562681344
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Just tell him not to work in florida where Mets are get bored. 
Maybe he'll be a forecaster for NWS one day.
