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Old 01-06-2019, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
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Mohe is a proper favourite when it comes to really extreme temperatures in winter, that's for sure.
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Old 01-07-2019, 12:39 AM
 
Location: Seattle
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QIDb602 View Post
Summit Camp, Greenland might have the worst weather in the world right now. Some Siberian locations can compare, though.



.
How is a 01/09 min of -29 C and a 01/10 max of -57 C physically possible?
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:44 AM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,551 posts, read 1,937,172 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psyche_da_mike24 View Post
How is a 01/09 min of -29 C and a 01/10 max of -57 C physically possible?
Greenland is influenced by the Gulf Stream nearby and also this is at high elevation so upper atmosphere movement from either the Labrador Current or the Gulf Stream may shift temperatures rapidly from day to day if the Greenland High gets weaker, unlike a Verkhoyansk or Oymyakon stuck in a valley on low elevation. At least, that's my theory.

Anyway, it depends a lot on what timeframes you're working with. In Sweden we go with 6 am and 6 pm as isotherms for days. If Greenland does the same, then a sudden dropoff during the evening may be recorded as the next day. I don't know exactly how that works. Anyway, I don't think it'll have a -29C low on that day, it may well be a typo.
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Old 01-08-2019, 12:03 PM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
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Next 7 days' forecasted averages in Siberia:

Aldan: -20/-26
Chelyabinsk: -7/-16
Imeni Poliny: -34/-40
Irkutsk: -10/-18

Khabarovsk: -11/-19
Komsomolsk: -15/-26
Kyzyl: -17/-26
Norilsk: -29/-36

Novosibirsk: -11/-18
Omsk: -12/-17
Oymyakon: -39/-45
Spassk-Dalny: -6/-15

Verkhoyansk: -43/-48
Vladivostok: -4/-10
Yakutsk: -35/-40
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk: -4/-17

Looking quite standard for most locations, but Imeni Poliny is below average coming up. Oymyakon and Vladivostok in contrast are above average.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:35 PM
 
Location: NYC
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Got this idea from alex. Apparently this is the forecast for the summit of Denali.

Could be BS, as many ice cap forecasts are, but I've read that the summit does get down to -70C on occasion.
Attached Thumbnails
Siberian and Polar forecasts-denali.png  
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Old 01-11-2019, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,551 posts, read 1,937,172 times
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Next 7 days in "Continental Western Canada/Upper Midwest" (beneath -10C winter means but not tundra) and Alaska:

Generally close to averages, except in Anchorage where it is warmer and Duluth where the lows are a lot warmer than normal. Winnipeg on the other hand has rather low diurnals, with highs being colder than normal, but lows less severe than expected for January. Interestingly, that also occurs for Gimli farther north along Lake Winnipeg.

Jan 12-Jan 18

Anchorage: 1/-6
Duluth: -5/-9
Edmonton: -5/-12
Fairbanks: -17/-25

Fort Nelson: -14/-21
Fort Vermillion: -16/-22
Gimli: -16/-20
Fort McMurray: -15/-20

International Falls: -9/-17
Regina: -10/-16
Saskatoon: -12/-18
Thompson: -22/-28

Yellowknife: -24/-30
Winnipeg: -14/-19
Whitehorse: -12/-17
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Old 01-11-2019, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Edmonton, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
Next 7 days in "Continental Western Canada/Upper Midwest" (beneath -10C winter means but not tundra) and Alaska:

Generally close to averages, except in Anchorage where it is warmer and Duluth where the lows are a lot warmer than normal. Winnipeg on the other hand has rather low diurnals, with highs being colder than normal, but lows less severe than expected for January. Interestingly, that also occurs for Gimli farther north along Lake Winnipeg.

Jan 12-Jan 18

Anchorage: 1/-6
Duluth: -5/-9
Edmonton: -5/-12
Fairbanks: -17/-25

Fort Nelson: -14/-21
Fort Vermillion: -16/-22
Gimli: -16/-20
Fort McMurray: -15/-20

International Falls: -9/-17
Regina: -10/-16
Saskatoon: -12/-18
Thompson: -22/-28

Yellowknife: -24/-30
Winnipeg: -14/-19
Whitehorse: -12/-17
I know it's not technically El Nino but it's sure playing out like an El Nino year here. We still haven't dropped below -30C which is unusual. The last time we had a winter that failed to drop below -30C was the El Nino winter of 2015-2016. Prior to that you have to go all the way back to the strong El Nino of 1991-92 to find a winter that failed to dip below -30C. With almost half of meteorological winter gone I'd say we stand a reasonable chance of repeating.
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Old 01-11-2019, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
I know it's not technically El Nino but it's sure playing out like an El Nino year here. We still haven't dropped below -30C which is unusual. The last time we had a winter that failed to drop below -30C was the El Nino winter of 2015-2016. Prior to that you have to go all the way back to the strong El Nino of 1991-92 to find a winter that failed to dip below -30C. With almost half of meteorological winter gone I'd say we stand a reasonable chance of repeating.

What do you say about the prospective -22/-32 day for Edmonton right at the end of Weatheronline's 8-day forecast? It looks like a strong shift on the prairies within one week. Polar outbreak and northerlies gaining momentum? On the other hand, Edmonton is a really strange climate in winter, often deviating from averages. Apparently a -18/-19 day next week is also possible, that must be quite rare that far inland with non-existent diurnals like that?
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Old 01-11-2019, 11:48 PM
 
Location: Edmonton, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
What do you say about the prospective -22/-32 day for Edmonton right at the end of Weatheronline's 8-day forecast? It looks like a strong shift on the prairies within one week. Polar outbreak and northerlies gaining momentum? On the other hand, Edmonton is a really strange climate in winter, often deviating from averages. Apparently a -18/-19 day next week is also possible, that must be quite rare that far inland with non-existent diurnals like that?
I buy that -22/-32 will happen. That far out I trust the Euro model more and ECMWF has the colder air going much further east.

We certainly do get cold days with low diurnals from time to time. A one degree range would be unusual but certainly ranges of 2 or 3 degrees with cold temperatures (i.e. subzero Fahrenheit) can happen a few times a winter. They usually happen near the start of a cold spell when there's a surface low in conjunction with the arctic front creating cloud cover and/or snow. Last February 2 for example the range was -18.8/-21.0C; two days later it was -39C.

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Old 01-12-2019, 06:36 AM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,551 posts, read 1,937,172 times
Reputation: 959
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
I buy that -22/-32 will happen. That far out I trust the Euro model more and ECMWF has the colder air going much further east.

We certainly do get cold days with low diurnals from time to time. A one degree range would be unusual but certainly ranges of 2 or 3 degrees with cold temperatures (i.e. subzero Fahrenheit) can happen a few times a winter. They usually happen near the start of a cold spell when there's a surface low in conjunction with the arctic front creating cloud cover and/or snow. Last February 2 for example the range was -18.8/-21.0C; two days later it was -39C.

That seems to match what's forecast to happen next week rather well, it will be interesting to see whether this will result in a cold wave or merely will remain a cold snap. Here instead, at a higher latitude but by the sea, low diurnals are a regular occurence in winter, but most often ends up when the maritime air overtakes the subarctic dry background air. While Nykping's warmed by the Gulf Stream influence, the low-pressure maritime influence has to be massive. Moving just 130 km inland where I was at University, the first sign of a clear afternoon sky meant instant dips towards -10C this time of the year.
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