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Old 01-12-2019, 06:28 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
67,074 posts, read 48,976,939 times
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Figure I start a thread on this. Its becoming a popular topic now especially on social media. I think ever since Feb 2015. Its been around forever but we're still learning the science of it.

Click this tweet and follow the thread. Good stuff!

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Old 01-12-2019, 06:35 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I learned about the SSW from Steve and the Polar Vortex from Dr. Judah. He's been studying it for 20yrs



https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather/st...18346400141313
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Old 01-12-2019, 06:39 PM
Status: " Back to subarctic central indiana" (set 19 days ago)
 
Location: Part time dual resident of 76131 and 46060
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Perhaps this climate change would make arctic outbreaks more frequent and severe for the eastern two thirds of the lower 48 states while much of the rest of the world sees diminished winter weather outside the northern hemisphere. If this is true then global warming sux
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Old 01-12-2019, 06:47 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
Perhaps this climate change would make arctic outbreaks more frequent and severe for the eastern two thirds of the lower 48 states while much of the rest of the world sees diminished winter weather outside the northern hemisphere. If this is true then global warming sux
It's true for FL. No cold since 2010.
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Old 01-12-2019, 06:58 PM
 
Location: Saint Paul, MN
5,661 posts, read 3,052,996 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
It's true for FL. No cold since 2010.

Bro... my aunt and uncle's place in Florida got an ice storm in January 2017. What you mean "no cold"? They even got snow flurries in 2014.
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Old 01-12-2019, 07:06 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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In short, major and sudden warming of the Stratosphere destroys the Polar Vortex which means it breaks off into pieces. Where the pieces go is the question. It causes changes in weather patterns and brings frigid air to mid latitudes.

Watch Steve D explain it. It's from 2013 but worth a listen. (BTW, after this event, Feb & March 2013 were below normal with lots of snows)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6_ayLIFOUw
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Old 01-12-2019, 07:45 PM
 
Location: Edmonton, Canada
1,866 posts, read 977,486 times
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I'm trying to figure out whether GFS is calling for a SSW for this upcoming cold blast but I don't think so.

Here's what the upper levels looked like during the SSW event of February 2018.


Here's the GFS upper-level forecast for January 21 (the day it's calling for 2m temperatures in upstate New York of -36F).


Doesn't look like SSW to me?
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Old 01-12-2019, 09:53 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
67,074 posts, read 48,976,939 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
I'm trying to figure out whether GFS is calling for a SSW for this upcoming cold blast but I don't think so.

Here's what the upper levels looked like during the SSW event of February 2018.

Here's the GFS upper-level forecast for January 21 (the day it's calling for 2m temperatures in upstate New York of -36F).

Doesn't look like SSW to me?

I believe there is a 3-5 week lag time from the time the Stratosphere warms to when the Polar Vortex split happens or affects the surface? I know Europe has been getting hit with cold and snow so they got it first. Now our turn?


I think the government shut down is affect some sites. Graphs aren't updating.


I got this from Judah. See that spike of the stratosphere temps at 90N? From slightly below normal to record warm in December. So the PV split has happened and now looks like from your map that it's coming south into Canada. Oh boy.


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Old 01-12-2019, 09:58 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
67,074 posts, read 48,976,939 times
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He's the guy to ask questions on this stuff. Do it via twitter he seems to respond more.


Here's a blog he did recently. Don't know what to paste there's a lot..

https://www.aer.com/science-research...c-oscillation/

Quote:
The predicted details of the stratospheric PV disruption are showing better consistency among the weather models. An MMW has occurred as well as a PV split. Instead there still remains much uncertainty with the impacts of the stratospheric warming on the weather. Following the peak of the stratospheric warming, I would expect the warm/positive PCHS to “drip” down into the troposphere, which is now predicted by at least the GFS. A sudden stratospheric warming not only leads to a warm Arctic in the stratosphere but also at the surface as well. And a warmer Arctic favors more severe winter weather in the NH midlatitudes including the Eastern US. I do think there is uncertainty how warm much the Arctic warms in the lower troposphere and surface and could play a major role in the duration and magnitude of the weather impacts of the PV split.
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Old 01-12-2019, 10:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
67,074 posts, read 48,976,939 times
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Another blog by Judah

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...=.aa29a5b08115

Quote:
When the vortex, perched some 60,000 feet high in the atmosphere, is stable, winter conditions over the United States and Europe tend to be rather ordinary. Winter is still winter, with the normal mix of storms, cold snaps and thaws.

But when the vortex is disrupted, an ordinary winter can suddenly turn severe and memorable for an extended duration. “[It] can affect the entire winter,” Cohen said in an interview
A Sudden Stratospheric warming event disrupts the Polar Vortex
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