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Old 01-26-2019, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,590 posts, read 1,975,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tij View Post
Do you think its winter means will look similar to Minneapolis (15f/-9c in january?)? St paul still has a winter carnival... but occasionally mild spells force cancellations....

Even if Harbin's winters would become 4C milder, it'd still be an -8/-18 January, in other words great opportunities to still hold an ice festival if they just put it back on month. That's colder than February in Harbin for the 1981-2010 averages.
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Old 01-26-2019, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tij View Post
Do you think its winter means will look similar to Minneapolis (15f/-9c in january?)? St paul still has a winter carnival... but occasionally mild spells force cancellations....
By 2100, it will be something like ~-14C in January and ~-8C in February. This means January in 2100 will be something like January 21 - February 20 now. Considering that many sculptures partially melt in February, climate change will hurt the festival to a degree. Although I guess it can still take place. However, beyond 2100 the situation can get a bit worse.

I can't be sure about what would happen. We will know how things turn out later.
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Old 01-26-2019, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
Even if Harbin's winters would become 4C milder, it'd still be an -8/-18 January, in other words great opportunities to still hold an ice festival if they just put it back on month. That's colder than February in Harbin for the 1981-2010 averages.
They can't put it back one month. There needs to be time for construction and competition. Currently the time is December.
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Old 01-26-2019, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,590 posts, read 1,975,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QIDb602 View Post
They can't put it back one month. There needs to be time for construction and competition. Currently the time is December.
Chinese work ethic is immense, so they'll be able to do stuff even quicker if need be, I'm sure. That being said, I sincerely doubt it's going to get 4C warmer in Harbin until the end of the century from now. Maybe 2C. West coast climates seem to be warming faster due to the oceans and thus the prevailing wind getting warmer.
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Old 01-26-2019, 06:42 PM
 
Location: Log "cabin" west of Bangor
5,612 posts, read 6,588,483 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QIDb602 View Post
What do you think should be done for Harbin's ice festival?
Nothing. Who cares?

The climate has been warming for the last 18,000 years or so, there's not a damn thing that anyone can do about it. C'est la vie.
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Old 01-28-2019, 12:16 PM
 
Location: Gatineau, Qubec
21,274 posts, read 26,428,316 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
Lake moderation a thing of the past? About to fully freeze over by now?
Lake Ontario never freezes over completely. I believe the most it freezes over is about half of the surface.


There are a number of reasons for this. The main one is that it's pretty deep so it retains heat more than a shallower lake would. Though Lake Superior which is larger and pretty deep as well can freeze over - but it's further north and is subject to much colder temperatures.


Lake Erie, which is located to the south of Lake Ontario and has even warmer temperatures, actually freezes over quite easily. That's because it's very shallow.
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Old 02-11-2019, 03:09 AM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
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This forecast may very well result in many ice sculptures partially melting.

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Old 02-14-2019, 02:44 PM
 
Location: Seattle
51 posts, read 13,420 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
Chinese work ethic is immense, so they'll be able to do stuff even quicker if need be, I'm sure. That being said, I sincerely doubt it's going to get 4C warmer in Harbin until the end of the century from now. Maybe 2C. West coast climates seem to be warming faster due to the oceans and thus the prevailing wind getting warmer.
Considering Harbin is an east-coast humid continental climate that is farther away from the equator, I would assume its winters will warm by more than 4C in a 4C global average warming scenario.
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Old Yesterday, 03:11 AM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psyche_da_mike24 View Post
Considering Harbin is an east-coast humid continental climate that is farther away from the equator, I would assume its winters will warm by more than 4C in a 4C global average warming scenario.
I would expect a 3-4C global warming scenario from pre-industrial times (maybe 2C from now).

Use the map in this source and zoom in near Harbin. Click on a rectangle close to Harbin. You can see a graph that shows Harbin in 2100 will be about 4C warmer than the mid-1900s based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, which translates to about 2.5C than today. I'd expect Harbin to warm more in winter than in summer, so that could be about 3-3.5C in winter. By 2200 Harbin could easily be about 4C warmer in winter.

Meanwhile, the meltdown is about to begin:

Attached Thumbnails
Harbin's ice festival is threatened by climate change-harbin.png  
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Old Today, 03:23 AM
 
6,412 posts, read 6,333,809 times
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Ice will melt with above 0 C air temperature if it is directly under the sun.

A local bank here near Boston made an ice sculpture just to celebrate 2019 new year, but it rained in new year's eve and the temperature was in 50s F on the new year's day. The sculpture literally went out in one day.
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