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Old 01-26-2019, 06:11 AM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
Reputation: 212

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Seeing the current relatively mild weather forecast for Harbin, I can't help but notice that some of Harbin's ice festival is threatened by climate change and will be even more intensely threatened in the future to the point of not being able to exist at its present location. The 1C high forecasted on January 29 and -1C high with sunshine forecasted on January 27 may even cause some ice sculptures to begin melting, although I'm not sure. Note that temperatures slightly below freezing in the shade may be above freezing in the sunshine, and ice may sublimate when below freezing.



Some news articles about the subject:

https://newsahead.com/34th-harbin-ic...lobal-warming/

(shows that not only is relatively mild weather a problem, but also a lack of natural ice and snow)

https://uk.reuters.com/article/envir...24904820080108 (from 2008)

We should really take steps to minimize emissions of greenhouse gases and subsequent climate change. Climate change can harm us from rising sea levels, reduction of wildlife, changing weather patterns, and many small ways such as the melting of sculptures in Harbin's ice festival.

Contrary to what the (outdated) second article states, China does have a cap-and-trade system implemented in December 2017: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chines...trading_scheme. China also agrees to peak emissions by 2030 and to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit of GDP by 2030 from a baseline of 2005 per its Paris Agreement pledge, which seems to have already been done looking at statistics. However, it's still projected to fail according to the Paris Agreement's (optimistic) 2C goal. (source)

Now, back to Harbin's ice festival. The best solution I can think of would be to relocate the festival to Heihe or Hulunbuir. Nonstop flights from Harbin to Hulunbuir and Heihe already exist, although high-speed rail could also be built. A problem is that there will be some economic losses, but overall there will still be a significant profit.

What do you think should be done for Harbin's ice festival? Discuss here.
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Old 01-26-2019, 06:15 AM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,590 posts, read 1,975,870 times
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Melting is primarily dictated by the daily mean being above freezing. Therefore anything will re-freeze as soon as temps go below freezing again. If a 1C high occurs with a -16C low, the general perception is that it'll feel like an ice day and also the melting goes slower, the lower the temp above freezing is. If you look at the whole next week, then that's a -7/-15 average week. While above average, this is by far enough for the ice festival to be under no danger whatsoever!
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Old 01-26-2019, 06:49 AM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
Reputation: 212
Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
Melting is primarily dictated by the daily mean being above freezing. Therefore anything will re-freeze as soon as temps go below freezing again. If a 1C high occurs with a -16C low, the general perception is that it'll feel like an ice day and also the melting goes slower, the lower the temp above freezing is. If you look at the whole next week, then that's a -7/-15 average week. While above average, this is by far enough for the ice festival to be under no danger whatsoever!
Here are many photos with partially melted sculptures in late February 2017: Ice sculptures in NE China begin to melt as temperature rises[1]- Chinadaily.com.cn

They were taken on February 24, 2017. Now look at Wunderground's data for Harbin in February 2017: https://www.wunderground.com/history...HB/date/2017-2 The only above-freezing temperatures recorded in February before the 24th were 37F in February 14 and 15. This shows that sculptures can melt at just slightly above freezing.

Plus, many scientists have warned that climate change will affect Harbin's ice festival.
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,590 posts, read 1,975,870 times
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They'll just move it earlier in the season. Either way, the 37F highs for consecutive days might have some done damage, but the forecast you posted, won't
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:09 AM
BMI
 
Location: Ontario
6,895 posts, read 4,104,160 times
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One day with a 1C high and -16C low won’t hurt festival one bit.

Or they could move the festival to Toronto...similar, if not colder, forecast here

We don’t know what global warming is around here...
what’s that, we’re enjoying our Polar Vortex....it loves this area.
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:45 AM
 
Location: Edmonton, Canada
1,904 posts, read 993,591 times
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Edmonton has a tiny little ice festival of its own. And guess what? It's threatened by warm temperatures almost every year now. It rained all night here at the "coldest" time of the year, no doubt very much a threat to the sculptures.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...ting-1.4992194
Quote:
The 16th annual Ice On Whyte ice carving festival has returned for another year, but for the fourth year in the past five years, the temperatures are expected to be above 0 C.
Ice festivals are the least of our worries. The world is melting from the top down and still people are in denial.
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Old 01-26-2019, 07:45 AM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
5,590 posts, read 1,975,870 times
Reputation: 964
Quote:
Originally Posted by BMI View Post
One day with a 1C high and -16C low wont hurt festival one bit.

Or they could move the festival to Toronto...similar, if not colder, forecast here

We dont know what global warming is around here...
whats that, were enjoying our Polar Vortex....it loves this area.

Lake moderation a thing of the past? About to fully freeze over by now?
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Old 01-26-2019, 08:08 AM
 
Location: Seattle Area
556 posts, read 85,196 times
Reputation: 212
My point is mostly about climate change in the long term. I don't think the warm spell in the forecast will matter, but Harbin is projected to warm about 4C by 2100 from 1951-1980 according to RCP 4.5 and 6.0. (source) Considering that winter tends to warm more than summer, Harbin's ice festival is at great risk from climate change.
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Old 01-26-2019, 09:00 AM
 
776 posts, read 729,378 times
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A real shame about the ongoing climate-change thing, and everything it affects. Breaks my heart, really.

Even more of a shame that there's literally nothing at all, we 'puny insects' scratching & clawing for our continued-existance upon earth's surface can actually DO about it.

Seriously, if we could 're-engineer' the climate of this planet, then what's to stop us from terra-forming Mars, or even Venus, for that matter ? Heck, the moons Titan, Europa & Io are way better candidates for such an endeaver, when you think about it.

Nope. Probably still 1000 more years in our future, before this human 'race' has fully matured, enough to tackle such a monstrous task...and it's very likely our parent-star will expand-outwards, as it continues to undergo the specific changes which are ACTUALLY the REAL cause for climate-change, here on earth.

Don't believe me ? Look again. Rather than sit there crunching-numbers & whining on & on about continued-use of fossil-fuels, how about doing some REAL research ?

The facts may shock you.

Sorty, folks...short of inviting help from an extra-terrestrial species (one that has actual, hard-core experience in construction & successful management of a 'Dyson Spere') there is literally N.O.T.H.I.N.G. we can....'Do' about the Sun.

She is GOING to expand outwards, and that WILL be the end of everything, whether we like it or not.
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Old 01-26-2019, 11:28 AM
tij
 
135 posts, read 17,865 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by QIDb602 View Post
My point is mostly about climate change in the long term. I don't think the warm spell in the forecast will matter, but Harbin is projected to warm about 4C by 2100 from 1951-1980 according to RCP 4.5 and 6.0. (source) Considering that winter tends to warm more than summer, Harbin's ice festival is at great risk from climate change.
Do you think its winter means will look similar to Minneapolis (15f/-9c in january?)? St paul still has a winter carnival... but occasionally mild spells force cancellations....
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