(Fictional working climate system) Could Minas Tirith according to climate lore EVER receive snowfall that far south? (hot, warm)

[VulcanRabbi]

(I hope this isn't breaking any rules since this IS a working climate system and I don't know where else to post this) https://askmiddlearth.tumblr.com/pos...f-middle-earth

Could Minas Tirith ever likely get snow either at the lower spots or higher where the king lives? What are your thoughts? The reason I asked as Middle Earth while a fictional place DOES have a working climate system.

If you don't believe me this link explains the normal climate: https://askmiddlearth.tumblr.com/pos...f-middle-earth

"The daily temperature in Middle Earth is going to vary vastly depending on where in Middle Earth you are (and, of course, what season it is). You can make a lot of assumptions based on descriptions within the various stories, but for efficiency’s sake my answer is coming from The Atlas of Middle-earth, which includes a whole chapter of thematic maps.

All in all think of Middle Earth as Europe, basically, when it comes to climate. The western regions (so most of Eriador) had mild weather all-around. East of the Misty Mountains saw more extremes, with colder winters and warmer summers. Most of Gondor and Rohan was pretty warm, with hot summers and mild winters. Also keep in mind that the Norther Waste is basically a polar region, so it gets colder the further north you go. See the climate map below:

If you’re wondering about Beleriand in the First Age, I’ve included that map as well (it’s the one on top, fyi.) Also, keep in mind that Valinor would have perfect weather all the time, because the Valar said so."

So this leads me to believe since Middle Earth is heavily westerly dominated by the ocean winds under the right setup how far south could snow ever fall? All the way into Gondor/Mordor regions?

[secondbreakfast]

Originally Posted by VulcanRabbi

(I hope this isn't breaking any rules since this IS a working climate system and I don't know where else to post this) https://askmiddlearth.tumblr.com/pos...f-middle-earth

Could Minas Tirith ever likely get snow either at the lower spots or higher where the king lives? What are your thoughts? The reason I asked as Middle Earth while a fictional place DOES have a working climate system.

Seeing as I posted this earlier this year, I think I speak with some authority...

Could Minas Tirith get snow? Absolutely, in my opinion, even at its lower elevations. Minas Tirith is located at 43*N and while it is sort of near an ocean, it is far inland enough to get cold spells from time to time. Remember that there are no mountains immediately north of the city, allowing cold air from Rhovanion to pass southward unabated. As additional proof, Minas Tirith is located at the eastern end of the White Mountains and it's probably no coincidence that Tolkien named them that. I'd expect it to be rare event but it can snow in places with similar real-life climates like Florence:




and Istanbul:


.

At the top of the tower of Echthelion, about 1,000 feet above the lowest level of the city, there would be an even higher chance of snow, maybe happening once a year on average. It could plausibly snow at the top level of Minas Tirith while raining at the city gates.

As to how far south snow could fall, I would guess somewhere in South Ithilien around the source of the Poros in the upper elevations of the Ephel Duath. My reasoning would be a combination of sea-moisture and high elevation means that some winter precipitation would fall as snow. Mordor (even southern Mordor), in the rain shadow of Ephel Duath, is probably too dry for measurable snow even if it's cold. Anywhere further south would likely be either too mild (South Gondor, Umbar) or too dry (Harad) for snow.