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Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 6:17pm
Monday Eveninng: The high pressure system will remain over the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
Tuesday: The high pressure system is likely to be over the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Wednesday: The high pressure system will move over Victoria and into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea and another is likely to form in the Great Australian Bight. A weak cold front could possibly clip the southwest coast of Victoria later in the morning before sliding south of the state. There is the very small risk for isolated thunderstorms just ahead and with the weak change. No severe activity.
Friday: The high pressure system will extend from Tasmania to the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms expected.
Saturday: Its likely the high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea with a tight northwest gradient over Victoria. A cold front is expected to reach Victoria during the day, although timing of the front is still difficult to pin-point. It will most likely reach the west during the afternoon, central parts late afternoon or evening and eastern areas at night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead and with the front, and isolated cold-air thunderstorms may develop behind the front. No severe thunderstorms.
Sunday: A new high pressure system will move to be in the Great Australian Bight, possibly extending a ridge over Victoria. On current model guidence, there is the slight risk for isolated cold-air thunderstorms near the coastline only and nothing severe.
Monday: The high pressure system is likely to move over the Victorian and Tasmanian region. No thunderstorms are expected.
Tuesday: Its likely a high pressure system will be in the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms expected.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 7:21pm
Tuesday Evening: The high pressure system is likely to be over the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
Wednesday: The high pressure system will move over Victoria and into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Thursday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea and another is likely to form in the Great Australian Bight. A weak cold front and trough could possibly clip the southwest coast of Victoria later in the morning before sliding south of the state. There is the very small risk for isolated thunderstorms just ahead and with the weak change. No severe activity.
Friday: The high pressure system will extend from the southeast of Australia to the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected at this stage, however there are signs there could be an area of instability over western districts.
Saturday: Its likely the high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea with a tight northwest gradient over Victoria. A cold front is expected to reach Victoria during the day, although timing of the front is still difficult to pin-point. It will most likely reach the west during the mid afternoon, central parts during the evening and eastern areas at night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead and with the front, and isolated thunderstorms may develop behind the front. No severe thunderstorms.
Sunday: An uncertain weather pattern seems like it will develop from Sunday. Its likely high pressure systems will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another over the Tasman Sea, however a low pressure trough is expected to be over the state and there could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms generally anywhere. Small chance for severe thunderstorms. Please watch for updates.
Monday: The uncertain weather pattern continues. One high pressure cell is expected to move southeast of Tasmania and the other is likely to be in the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough is still expected to be over the state and there could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms over the west and ranges. Very low chance for severe thunderstorms. Please watch for updates.
Tuesday: The uncertain weather pattern continues. The high pressure systems are likely to to be in the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough should move more eastwards so the instability shifts to northeast Victoria. There could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms over the northeast. No severe thunderstorms.
Wednesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. There is the risk of a developing system near the south coast of Victoria, but no thunderstorms are expected at this stage.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 7:20pm
Wednesday Evening: The high pressure system will remain over Victoria and into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected tonight.
Thursday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea and another is likely to form over Western Australia. A weak cold front and trough will move over the southwest coast of Victoria later in the morning or early afternoon before sliding south of the state. There is the very small risk for isolated thunderstorms just ahead and with the weak change over the western and southwest districts. No severe activity.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Friday: The high pressure system will extend from Tasmania to the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected.
Saturday: Its likely the high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea with a tight northwest gradient over Victoria. A cold front is expected to reach the west of Victoria during the afternoon, central parts during the evening and eastern areas at night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead and with the front. No severe thunderstorms.
Sunday: Its likely high pressure systems will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough may be over the state and there could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms across the state, mainly the northeast at this stage. Small chance for severe thunderstorms. Please watch for updates.
Monday: One high pressure cell is expected to be over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria, and the other is likely to be in the Tasman Sea. There may be a trough near Victoria, however no thunderstorms are expected at this stage.
Tuesday: The high pressure systems are likely to remain where they were on Monday, one extending over Victoria and Tasmania and the other in the Tasman Sea. There may be a trough near Victoria, however no thunderstorms are expected at this stage.
Wednesday: The high pressure systems are likely to remain over the southeast of Australia and in the Tasman Sea. There seems to be an upper disturbance that will move over western Victoria during the day, from that there is the risk for isolated thunderstorms. No severe activity.
Thursday: The high pressure systems will move eastwards slowly, with a new high developing in the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. There will also be a high remain in the Tasman Sea. There could be an upper disturbance over Victoria so isolated thunderstorms are possible. No severe activity.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 8:40pm
Thursday Evening: No storms.
Friday: The high pressure system will extend from Tasmania to the Tasman Sea. There is the small risk that a seabreeze convergence line will develop isolated thunderstorms over southern areas of the state during the afternoon. If thunderstorms do develop, there is the small risk for severe activity in the way of damaging winds.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Saturday: Its likely the high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea with a tight northwest gradient over Victoria. A cold front approaching Victoria is expected to fall south of the mainland and Tasmania, with just a low pressure trough expected to reach the west of the state during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are a small chance ahead and with the trough change. No severe thunderstorms.
Sunday: Its likely a high pressure system will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough should be over the state slowly moving eastwards to central and eastern Victoria and there could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms across any part of the state, but mainly the east and northeast at this stage. Small chance for severe thunderstorms.
Monday: One high pressure cell is expected to be over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria, and the other is likely to be in the Tasman Sea. There may be a trough near eastern Victoria, and if a trough is near the state there would be the small risk for an isolated thunderstorm over the eastern ranges. No severe activity.
Tuesday: The high pressure systems are likely to remain where they were on Monday, one extending over Victoria and Tasmania and the other in the Tasman Sea. There may be a trough near Victoria, however no thunderstorms are expected at this stage.
Wednesday: The high pressure systems are likely to remain over the southeast of Australia and in the Tasman Sea. There seems to be an upper disturbance that may move over western Victoria during the day, from that there is the risk for isolated thunderstorms. No severe activity.
Thursday: The high pressure systems will move eastwards slowly, with a new high developing in the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. There will also be a high remain in the Tasman Sea. At this stage it seems like the upper disturbance will move over northeast Victoria and into New South Wales, so only isolated thunderstorms are possible in the northeast. No severe activity.
Friday: The high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will move away as the other high remains in the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 6:12pm
Friday Evening: The high pressure system will extend from Tasmania to the Tasman Sea. An area to watch this evening is north of Melbourne for thunderstorm development thanks to a seabreeze convergent, however is is considered unlikely, so no thunderstorms are expected tonight.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea with a tight northwest gradient over Victoria. A cold front approaching Victoria is expected to fall south of the mainland and Tasmania, with just a low pressure trough expected to reach the west of the state during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are a small to medium chance ahead and with the trough change over the southwest. No severe thunderstorms.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Sunday: Its likely a high pressure system will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another remaining over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough should be over the state slowly moving eastwards to central and eastern Victoria and there could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms across central and eastern districts. Very small chance for severe thunderstorms.
Monday: One high pressure cell is expected to be over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria, and the other is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. There is expected to be a trough near eastern Victoria and there is the small possibility for isolated thunderstorms on the northeast ranges. No severe activity.
Tuesday: One high pressure cell will remain over southeastern Australia and the second high will remain over the Great Australian Bight. A trough is expected near the state, however no thunderstorms are expected from that particular disturbance. A second upper level disturbance is likely to be over South Australia and will slowly approach western Victoria during the day, possibly reaching the northwest at night and there is the risk for an isolated thunderstorm with that. No severe activity.
Wednesday: The high pressure systems are likely to join over the Tasman Sea. There seems to be an upper disturbance that may move over western Victoria during the day, from that there is the risk for isolated thunderstorms. No severe activity.
Thursday: There is a lot of model guidence dissagreement for Thursday at this stage. The high pressure system is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea as a new high develops south of Western Australia. The upper level disturbance is expected to remain over Victoria at this early stage, and that may result in isolated thunderstorms generally over any part of Victoria. There is also the risk of a low pressure system developing southwest of Victoria. No severe thunderstorms are expected. Please watch for updates.
Friday: The high pressure system is likely to move over the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. The upper disturbance is expected to have cleared and if there was a low pressure system it would have either dissipated or moved away from Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
Saturday: The high pressure system is likely to move over southeastern Australia, however there may be a weak cold front clip the southern coast of Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 8:12am
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea with a tight northwest gradient over Victoria. A cold front approaching Victoria is expected to fall south of the mainland and Tasmania, with just a low pressure trough expected to reach the west of the state during the afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms are a small to medium chance ahead and with the trough change over the southwest. No severe thunderstorms.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Sunday: Its likely a high pressure system will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another remaining over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough should be over the state slowly moving eastwards to central and eastern Victoria and there could be high enough moisture levels to mix with the unstable conditions to create isolated thunderstorms across central and eastern districts. Very small chance for severe thunderstorms.
Monday: One high pressure cell is expected to be over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria, and the other is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. There is expected to be a trough near eastern Victoria and there is the small possibility for isolated thunderstorms on the northeast ranges. No severe activity.
Tuesday: One high pressure cell will remain over southeastern Australia and the second high will remain over the Great Australian Bight. A trough is expected near the state, however no thunderstorms are expected from that particular disturbance. A second upper level disturbance is likely to be over South Australia and will slowly approach western Victoria during the day, possibly reaching the northwest at night and there is the risk for an isolated thunderstorm with that. No severe activity.
Wednesday: The high pressure systems are likely to join over the Tasman Sea. There seems to be an upper disturbance that may move over western Victoria during the day, from that there is the risk for isolated thunderstorms. No severe activity.
Thursday: There is a lot of model guidence dissagreement for Thursday at this stage. The high pressure system is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea as a new high develops south of Western Australia. The upper level disturbance is expected to remain over Victoria at this early stage, and that may result in isolated thunderstorms generally over any part of Victoria. There is also the risk of a low pressure system developing southwest of Victoria. No severe thunderstorms are expected. Please watch for updates.
Friday: The high pressure system is likely to move over the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. The upper disturbance is expected to have cleared and if there was a low pressure system it would have either dissipated or moved away from Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
Saturday: The high pressure system is likely to move over southeastern Australia, however there may be a weak cold front clip the southern coast of Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 2:55pm
Sunday afternoon: Severe thunderstorms developed over the southwest yesterday afternoon and evening and persisted well into the night. So far today, isolated thunderstorms have developed over eastern aresa. Its likely a high pressure system will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another remaining over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough will slide more east through central and eastern areas this afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are a continued possibility. Severe thunderstorms are also a slight risk.
Monday: One high pressure cell is expected to be over Tasmania and Victoria, and the other is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. There is expected to be a trough near eastern Victoria and there is the small possibility for an isolated thunderstorm on the far eastern ranges at first. No severe activity.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Tuesday: High pressure will be over the Tasman Sea with ridges extending over Victoria. An upper level disturbance is likely to be over South Australia and will slowly approach western Victoria during the day, reaching the northwest at night and extending over remaining western areas overnight, and there is the risk for an isolated thunderstorm with that. No severe activity.
Wednesday: The high pressure system will remain over the Tasman Sea. The upper disturbance will be over all of Victoria and isolated thunderstorms are possible from this. There is the small risk for severe thunderstorms.
Thursday: A new high pressure system is likely to move into the Great Australian Bight. The upper level disturbance is expected to remain over Victoria at this early stage, and that may result in isolated thunderstorms generally over any part of Victoria, however the disturbance should contract eastwards as the day progresses. Small risk for severe thunderstorms.
Friday: The high pressure system will extend from the Great Australian Bight to Victoria. Too much stability in the atmosphere should cause no thunderstorms.
Saturday: At this stage the high pressure system should extend from the Great Australian Bight to the Tasman Sea. A weak cold front may clip southern Victoria, but a low chance at this stage. No thunderstorms expected.
Sunday: At this stage the high pressure system should move into the Tasman Sea as a new high develops south of Western Australia, extending into the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms expected.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 6:07pm
Sunday Evening: Severe thunderstorms developed over the southwest yesterday afternoon and evening and persisted well into the night. So far today, isolated thunderstorms have developed over eastern areas and the Bureau of Meteorology have issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the east. Its likely a high pressure system will develop in the Great Australian Bight, with another remaining over the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough will slide more east through central and eastern areas tonight and isolated thunderstorms are a continued possibility. Severe thunderstorms are also a slight risk - currently occuring.
Monday: One high pressure cell is expected to move over Tasmania and Victoria, and the other is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. There is expected to be a trough near eastern Victoria and there is the small possibility for an isolated thunderstorm on the far eastern ranges at first. No severe activity.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Tuesday: High pressure will be over the Tasman Sea with ridges extending over Victoria. An upper level disturbance is likely to be over South Australia and will slowly approach western Victoria during the day, reaching the northwest at night and extending over remaining western areas overnight, and there is the risk for an isolated thunderstorm with that. No severe activity.
Wednesday: The high pressure system will remain over the Tasman Sea. The upper disturbance will be over all of Victoria and isolated thunderstorms are possible from this. There is the small risk for severe thunderstorms.
Thursday: A new high pressure system is likely to move into the Great Australian Bight. The upper level disturbance is expected to remain over Victoria at this early stage, and that may result in isolated thunderstorms generally over any part of Victoria, however the disturbance should contract eastwards as the day progresses. Small risk for severe thunderstorms.
Friday: The high pressure system will extend from the Great Australian Bight to Victoria. Too much stability in the atmosphere should cause no thunderstorms.
Saturday: The high pressure system should extend from the Great Australian Bight to the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms expected.
Sunday: The high pressure system should move into the Tasman Sea as a new high southwest of Western Australia extends through the Great Australian Bight and into western Victoria. No thunderstorms expected.
Monday: The high pressure system should only slide a little more eastwards to be south of Western Australia, extending through the Great Australian Bight and into Victoria. No thunderstorms are expected.
NEXT UPDATE: Monday, 5:00pm-7:00pm
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