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Old 12-27-2008, 03:16 AM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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While what 95% of the posters have said regarding the current ENSO neutral conditions is right on target,the article i saw (and have had
difficulty re locating) got me thinking about this subject since a weather book i have made a similar reference,and was printed about 4 or 5 years back..

Knowing how it may,or may not pan out is obviously way too early to tell..

..Im curious only because of what impacts the potential degree(s) of Global warming might have this time around..Could the next big El Nino coupled with G.W. effects bring even warmer water further north along the California coastline?...Though i was living in Kansas at the time,i remember hearing about the water temps. in the Santa Cruz/Pacific Grove areas supposedly reaching into the middle 70's at some point during the 97-98 episode..Could Santa Cruz see 79 or 80 this time around..How crazy might that be.. Heck, could the water off southern CA. stay warm enough long enough that a potentially strong Hurricane actually reaches Los Angeles or San Diego..With all the talk about G.W. already influencing things, could such a senerio actually play out.. or may suggested G.W. not influence a darn thing..thoughts??..

I remember how weird the weather was back in KS both of those years..And it was the 82-83 El Nino which sparked my weather curiosity to begin with...and while it created such a mess..it was an awesome sight to a little boy..Puddles and big ol waves..everywhere!!

I guess we will just have to wait and see what surprises might lie ahead.. Its what makes the weather so interesting to talk about..
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Old 12-27-2008, 02:00 PM
 
Location: IN
22,270 posts, read 38,878,709 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by si33 View Post
While what 95% of the posters have said regarding the current ENSO neutral conditions is right on target,the article i saw (and have had
difficulty re locating) got me thinking about this subject since a weather book i have made a similar reference,and was printed about 4 or 5 years back..

Knowing how it may,or may not pan out is obviously way too early to tell..

..Im curious only because of what impacts the potential degree(s) of Global warming might have this time around..Could the next big El Nino coupled with G.W. effects bring even warmer water further north along the California coastline?...Though i was living in Kansas at the time,i remember hearing about the water temps. in the Santa Cruz/Pacific Grove areas supposedly reaching into the middle 70's at some point during the 97-98 episode..Could Santa Cruz see 79 or 80 this time around..How crazy might that be.. Heck, could the water off southern CA. stay warm enough long enough that a potentially strong Hurricane actually reaches Los Angeles or San Diego..With all the talk about G.W. already influencing things, could such a senerio actually play out.. or may suggested G.W. not influence a darn thing..thoughts??..

I remember how weird the weather was back in KS both of those years..And it was the 82-83 El Nino which sparked my weather curiosity to begin with...and while it created such a mess..it was an awesome sight to a little boy..Puddles and big ol waves..everywhere!!

I guess we will just have to wait and see what surprises might lie ahead.. Its what makes the weather so interesting to talk about..
Yes, I am a Kansas native as well who has since moved elsewhere.
One of the events that really got me interested in the weather was the Siberian cold front in 1989 and the October snowstorm in 1996.
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Old 12-27-2008, 06:51 PM
 
Location: Golden, CO
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don't know what effect el niño would have, but those years of 83, 89, 98 were good years for us in deep south texas. If it means a colder, wetter winter, then I'm for it. It well be nice, since the winter after that, I SHOULD be in Colorado.
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Old 12-28-2008, 12:00 AM
 
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I am 95% certain that a La Nina will form for Australia, in the weak to moderate range. I am generally sure that means that an El Nino will form for America?? Is that true?

Anyway. I have heard a lot of long-range accurate forecasters predicting a La Nina for next year for Australia, possibly developing during the late part of our Summer (your Winter) and several of the long-range ENSO computer models are predicting cooler than normal seas near Australia. I guess however it will be seen over time.
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Old 12-28-2008, 03:41 AM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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....Interesting post Power Storm..sounds like the Forecasters in that part of the world might be hinting at something to come.
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Old 12-28-2008, 04:00 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by si33 View Post
....Interesting post Power Storm..sounds like the Forecasters in that part of the world might be hinting at something to come.
The odd thing is, we are actually just about in a La Nina now (wet conditions across Australia). If the central and eastern Pacific cools just slightly more, we will be in a weak La Nina, and IMO this will happen but only briefly before going back to neutral, though during the late Australian Summer we will be seeing a redevelopment of a stronger version of La Nina. That would mean plenty of rainfall for us with warmer SST just off the east coast of the country.
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Old 12-28-2008, 04:32 AM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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..If the forecasters there are looking at the SSTs growing even warmer off the east coast of the continent later during your summer season, That would mean that the SSTs up here in North America would start cooling again,and bring on an extended stay for La Nina..If they're suggesting conditions might switch there and cool off come the time your winter season rolls around..then its our turn on the El Nino roller coaster..as all that warm water there will be heading east across the Equitorial Pacific...

Overall im thinking somethings going on because the SST temps on your side of the neighborhood don't seem as warm as they were looking at this time last winter (your summer) and the waters around Chilie don't seem as cool as they were around this time last year as well...regardless..its always interesting to follow.
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Old 12-28-2008, 06:07 AM
 
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Interesting mate.

When we have a La Nina here (thanks to the cooling in the Pacific) the SSTs off the East Coast of Australia warm usually allowing plenty of precipitation to develop out of systems that develop there... i.e cyclones, low pressure systems, troughs, and whats better is that there is heaps more moisture overall and as soon as we get east to northeast winds the moisture over Australia builds, well for the eastern half of the continent anyway.

At the moment where touching La Nina thresholds, and I think with a little more cooling in the Pacific, we will go into a very weak and brief La Nina, but then back to nuetral territory. In my own opinion, going along with natural indicaters and also ENSO models, another, more stronger La Nina may develop here in our late Summer or in our Autumn. That would mean an El Nino for the USA? Is that right? Thats the part that confuses me... lol.

Yeah it is interested, and I will keep conversation up on it.
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Old 12-28-2008, 07:54 AM
 
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I don't know if it was an --El Nino--or a --La Nina-- that was responsible for the devastating drought in 1988 in MN.

It forced me financially to sell my dairy herd and return to the workplace.
( re-started dairy farming 5 years later)


Don't want to see the one that caused that devastation to Minnesota to visit again.
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Old 12-28-2008, 11:18 PM
 
Location: somewhere close to Tampa, but closer to the beach
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marmac,though i can't say for certain..its possible that the US was either just beginning or in the midst of a La Nina that year..if my memory serves me right, i think that winter was pretty dry here in CA.

Thats whats interesting,you just never know how either cycle could effect the weather patterns..I mean while the west coast has nearly washed away during many of the past El Ninos, They believe California was in the middle of one when the state saw one of the worst droughts yet back in the late 70's..
when water rationing first became a household term..
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